/ world today news/ The situation around Niger is developing so unusually that it is clear that the old world order is changing right before our eyes.
Less than a week has passed since the coup, but many countries have already become involved in the situation surrounding one of the world’s poorest countries and a world record for birth rates. After all, after the Presidential Guard ousted President Mohamed Bazum from power last Thursday, and its commander Abdurrahman Ciani proclaimed himself president of the National Council for the Defense of the Homeland, it seemed that everything would go according to the usual pattern for the region (that is already the seventh coup in this part of Africa in the last three years): neighbors and regional organizations will condemn the military that took power, call on them to return the legitimately elected president to power, the West will do the same, and Russia will at least verbally call for restoration of former power. Well, the West, of course, will also be alarmed by the possibility of losing an ally and the appearance of Russian military experts in Niger.
That’s how it was in the early days. The United States and France angrily condemned the coup, there was even talk of French military intervention (there are both American and French military bases in the country), the regional organization Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) threatened Niamey with large-scale sanctions and the use of force if you stage a coup they won’t release Bazum for a week. That is, two threats of military intervention were made in a country of 25 million people (albeit unofficially in the French case).
But since the beginning of this week, things have changed. The French foreign minister said Paris was not planning military intervention. Then the authorities of Mali and Burkina Faso (Niger’s neighbors) issued a statement that they would consider any military intervention in Niger’s internal affairs as a declaration of war against them. And the Guinean authorities said: it is necessary to refrain from the use of sanctions and military intervention – they will not solve the problem, but they can lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, the consequences of which can go beyond the borders of Niger.
What’s happening? The fact is that ECOWAS unites 15 West African countries, including eight former French colonies. But participation in the organization of three of them was stopped due to military coups – and these are precisely the aforementioned Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, which stood up for Niger. That is, the four members of the association are no longer in step, which calls into question the very existence of ECOWAS. Of course, no intervention in Niger was planned – they just decided to scare the new authorities in Niamey. Only the regional giant Nigeria is fit to bring in a military contingent from all the ECOWAS countries, but it will definitely not restore order from its northern neighbor by force. Moreover, African countries do not want to pull chestnuts out of the fire for the West – not only because of hostility to the former colonizers, but also because France and the United States were the ones who messed up the whole mess in the region that is now being cleaned up.
There have been coups there before, as well as civil wars, but it was after the Western intervention in Libya in 2011 that the problems in this part of the Sahara, including Mali and Niger, worsened significantly. By eliminating the pan-Africanist Gaddafi, the West played into the favor of the separatist and jihadist forces in the region – and everyone in West Africa understands this. The West did not like the Libyan leader’s pan-African plans, which could potentially hinder control of the region, but in return Paris and Washington got only increased chaos and disorder, which also hit their positions.
In addition, Russia appeared in the region.
First in the Central African Republic, then in Mali and Burkina Faso, and now, as the West fears, the Russians are to be expected in Niger. A country where our positions were minimal – even the embassy was closed in the 1990s. And now, at a demonstration outside the French embassy in Niamey, they waved Russian flags and demanded Wagner.
In our social networks, they even started writing that the new leader of the country, General Ciani, converted to Orthodoxy in time (either in the 80s or in the 10s), but this is a pure lie, and also aimed at discrediting Russia in Niger (a Muslim country). The issue is not Chiani’s religion, but the fact that neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, whose leaders have just returned from Russia, have interceded for him. That is, the new Nigerian authorities will see that several countries in the region, having strengthened their ties with the Russians, have acquired a strong voice and ability to defend their interests, despite Western pressure, and this in itself will be the best advertisement for Russia in Niger.
And our interests there are not only in expanding influence over another African country and not only in uranium (which is important to France), but also in those pan-African projects that are related to Niger. First of all, it is about the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, a project that has been trying to be realized for 15 years. The 4,500-kilometer-long pipeline is supposed to deliver gas from the Gulf of Guinea to the Mediterranean Sea, that is, from Africa to Europe. This project became relevant again after the separation of Europe from Russia – the Europeans are looking for a substitute for Russian gas. And last summer they decided to resume work on the trans-Saharan project. It passes through only three countries: Nigeria, Niger and Algeria, the latter being an old and very close partner of Russia and an equally consistent opponent of French influence south of its borders.
And it happened that yesterday in Moscow Sergei Shoigu held talks with the Chief of Staff of the National People’s Army of Algeria Said Shangrika. Although this visit was announced only the previous day, on Monday, it is of course unrelated to the events in Niger. But General Shangriha is the second man in Algeria, a country where the army plays a huge role, a country for which gas exports are of great importance. So a window of opportunity opens before Niger – thanks to the presence of several neighboring countries at the same time, which have bet on Russia, General Chiani can really lead his country out of French captivity. And I wouldn’t even need to exchange Mohammedanism for Orthodoxy for that.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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