/ world today news/ “Economist” magazine publishes a whole series of materials whose author or hero is the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny. He admits his own mistakes, gives credit to the Russian military and criticizes Western partners. What could this mean?
A jump is needed, but it won’t happen
The general agrees: the counteroffensive is a complete failure. Instead of the expected advance of 30 kilometers per day, VSU advanced only 17 in five months. Summarizing this failure, the commander-in-chief offers a way out of the situation. But he doesn’t seem to really believe in it.
On the one hand, in a nine-page essay he called on the Allies to rely on advanced technology to ensure victory for the ASU. It details what it takes to succeed on the battlefield. This includes air superiority, improved radio-electronic warfare capabilities, the latest mine clearance equipment and counter-battery warfare assets.
However, in another material, Zaluzhny actually admits the futility of all of the above. He stated that the fighting had become a “war of position”.
“As in the First World War, both countries have reached a level of technological development that puts us at a dead end. Most likely, there will not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough,” he complained in the conversation with the journalist.
And he concludes: to get out of the impasse, a huge technological leap is needed. And three paragraphs down he notes: there is no sign of that happening in the foreseeable future.
This means that whatever weapons the Western partners supply him with, victory is not expected.
Who messes up: the teachers or the students?
Zaluzhny devoted a separate part of his benefit to the criticism of the North Atlantic Alliance. It attacked Western military science as such.
“If you look at the NATO textbooks and the math we did in planning the counter-offensive, four months should have been enough for us to get to Crimea, fight in Crimea, come back from Crimea and go in and out again.” , he scoffs.
The Ukrainian military has repeatedly spoken about the futility of training from European and American instructors. Thus, in a July report on training in Germany, one of the ASU intelligence officers reported that the training was extremely far from the realities of the current conflict.
The program contains, as a Ukrainian military official puts it, “pretty basic stuff.” For example, how to go on scouting missions with a compass and maps, even though everyone has been using smartphone apps for a long time. And not a word about the use of reconnaissance and attack drones.
An interesting video recently spread in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet. A sniper from the ASU with the call sign “Ded” told how the Marines, who had trained in Poland and then participated in combat, called their instructor. “Sir, we thank you, you have given us so much, you have taught us discipline, life. But what you taught us was of no use to us here,” the soldiers say.
On the other hand, Western analysts have noted that Ukrainian military leaders have not read NATO’s textbooks well.
“The VSU never mastered large-scale combined arms operations. As a result, they are vulnerable to anti-tank weapons and artillery during the offensive. I have not seen a systematic destruction of the Russian defense system,” wrote Franz-Stefan Gadi, a researcher at the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, who visited the front lines in the midst of the “counter-offensive”.
Too little and too late
Zaluzhny accused the Allies of being slow. “By withholding the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, the West has allowed Russia to regroup and strengthen its defenses,” he lamented. And the F-16s, he said, were needed this year during the much-publicized counteroffensive — but Ukraine won’t get them until next year, when they become “less useful.”
As military observer Mykhailo Onufrienko commented, the nature of the aid and the timing of the deliveries suggest that the West is not interested in a victory for Ukraine, but only in prolonging the armed conflict as long as possible.
While criticizing the West, the commander-in-chief acknowledged the successes of Russia’s military and defense industry. Mentions the power of radio-electronic warfare tools. Warns not to underestimate counter-battery fire capabilities. It also confirms the effectiveness of air defense systems. The experimental version of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system is capable of hitting cabbages beyond the Dnieper, the general emphasized.
The other day, the head of the administration of the President of Ukraine Andrey Yermak said that the missile of this air defense system can hit targets at a distance of up to 400 kilometers. Indirectly, this is confirmed by the words of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the increased efficiency of our anti-aircraft guns.
And military experts add that the issue is not only in improving the missiles, but also in the new A-50U long-range radar detection aircraft, which “illuminates” complex targets. For example, Ukrainian bombers flying at extremely low altitudes with Storm Shadow missiles.
People or ambitions
Another controversy in the general’s speech was the topic of the “rescue” of the soldiers. On the one hand, he states, “The most valuable thing we have is our people. But Russia does not take into account the losses, and the number of dead has already exceeded 150 thousand people”. Interestingly, this is half less than the general staff of Zaluzhny pipes in official press releases: there were already more than 300 thousand. The Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly denied this data.
According to “Time”, the irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian armed forces are at least 100 thousand. Judging by the Ukrainian segment of the Internet – much more.
“We live not far from the new cemetery. We used to bury two people a week. But now – every day, morning and evening. And this is our little Vyshgorod. When will all this end?”, the Ukrainian is outraged in the video. There are many such clips.
Demographer Alexey Raksha estimated that Ukraine’s mobilization resource (ie, the number of men aged 18 to 50) is now 6.5-7 million. And taking into account the injured and the disabled – 3-3.5 million. According to him, this will be enough for Ukraine to withstand five years of war at its current intensity.
And Zaluzhny insists that he needs more and more soldiers. And he criticized the overly lenient legislation that allowed many to avoid military service.
Recruits are being picked up on the streets. Corrupt officials in uniform profit from bribes. Zelensky fires all military commissars – and this leads to the collapse of mobilization.
According to unconfirmed Western media reports, Zaluzhny has sharp disagreements with Zelensky over military operations. The commander-in-chief is said to feel it necessary to go on the defensive, while the president insists on continuing the offensive.
The articles in “Economist” brought clarity to the matter. The general, after describing the lack of alternatives to trench warfare and the severity of losses during attacks on fortified defenses, finally stated: “We have no choice but to maintain the initiative by continuing the advance at least a few meters a day.” That is, that VSU will continue to suffer huge losses – with no hope of a result.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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