Can we definitely turn the page on the Covid? For epidemiologist Yves Coppieters (ULB), the “pandemic situation is still a reality.”
What are the objective criteria for defining the persistence of a pandemic? “Officially, it results when we observe epidemic phenomena on at least three continents, at the same time. With an exponential increase in cases, accompanied by successive waves, ”recalls epidemiologist Yves Coppieters (ULB), for whom the pandemic situation linked to Covid is still a current reality. ” It is the dynamics of the multiplication of the virus that defines the pandemic. If, in several places in the world, we have a reproduction rate greater than 1, waves or successive rebounds, we are in a pandemic situation. »
For the epidemiologist, these conditions are still present for the Covid. “The epidemic is still strong in China. If the relaxation of measures did not lead to the dreaded catastrophe, there is still a lack of information. And in some places in the world, others epidemic peaks ralso arise. »
For Yves Coppieters, the virus would have to circulate in a low and constant way, without rebounding strongly, in order to be able to declare an endemic situation. “We are not yet in this endemic situation for the Covid. If we look the curve of hospitalizations -the most relevant-, we can see the rebounds very well. Which are not serious, but which show that there is still ongoing epidemic potential. »
History shows that a pandemic is always followed – more or less quickly – bya return to normal. “But under certain conditions : either with vaccines, or with treatments, or by being able to isolate patients continuously to break the chains of transmission”, specifies Yves Coppieters. “We have never had pandemics lasting 5 or 6 years., because we find either therapeutic or preventive solutions, which break the dynamics of the epidemic. »
Declare the end of the Covid pandemic? ” What interest? »
As for a possible announcement by the WHO to decree the end of the pandemic, Yves Coppieters does not see much point in it. “What would the end of the pandemic mean? Making people understand that the epidemic is over is impossible since the virus is not going to disappear. There are currently more than 1,000 variants of the Omicron strain. The virus multiplies without dramatic mutations, but always in quantity. »
The epidemiologist draws a parallel with the AIDS virus. “For example, we never said that it was the end of the HIV epidemic. It will be the same with the Covid. The virus that will continue to circulate, with epidemic peaks, severe mutations or not, which will lead to rebounds. It is towards this scenario that we are moving forward. To say that everything will disappear, nobody has this hypothesis in mind. Finding a treatment that will destroy the virus also seems illusory. »
« L’OMS may get a message saying the situation is under control globally. But that’s not the reality yet.”he concludes.
