LA TRIBUNE – What is the first lesson you draw from this first round of the presidential elections?
Emmanuel NÉGRIER, doctor in political science, research director at the CNRS and researcher at the Center for Political Studies of Latin Europe (CEPEL) at the University of Montpellier – We can observe that Occitania was, once again, more civic, with a higher participation rate (78.25%, editor’s note) to the national average. This is not necessarily due to a more developed civic spirit but because the structure of the population in Occitania gives more space to the rural world, which we know participates more. The low turnout is concentrated more in cities like Béziers, Montpellier or Nîmes, or in working-class neighborhoods where people vote less. Even if this geographical phenomenon plays a role, we have seen strong mobilization in working-class neighborhoods. We were coming out of two election years in very low turnout waters, and in these neighborhoods, some polling stations had fallen to less than 15% turnout. One could legitimately wonder if citizens removed from the elections for social reasons would find their way back to the polls. But it’s not so bad… This can be explained, in Montpellier in particular, by associations or movements, such as those supported by NousSommes (citizen movement born in 2018, editor’s note) who did a fairly intense mobilization work.
In a region historically of the socialist left, it was Marine Le Pen who won in Occitania during this first round of the presidential election, with 24.62% of the vote, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (23.48%) and Jean -Luc Melenchon (22.42%). The socialist candidate being relegated to 2.33% of the vote…
This is the second lesson that we can draw from this election. In a region with a rather left-wing tradition but with a fairly high component of the National Rally, the other political forces are bearing the brunt of the situation… On the left, the vote in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon was largely boosted by a vote useful which demonstrates that the electorate on the left has shown more sense of responsibility than the candidates themselves! For example, in the east of Montpellier, where Macronism has held up well, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in 2nd position. Proof that a significant part of the CSP+ who could have voted Emmanuel Macron, socialist or ecologist, considered that Jean-Luc Mélenchon was the useful vote. Will it be, as in 2017, a will-o’-the-wisp followed by electoral disappointments because of the division of the left? The danger is such that one can imagine a recomposition of the left, probably not by the legislative elections given the reciprocal resentments that exist. But it’s that or the dustbin of history… We know that the first round of legislative elections is the one that marks the financing of political life for five years: how can we do without it, considering the dominant position of LFI but also the need for everyone to rely on their resources? The danger is huge…
How do you analyze Eric Zemmour’s electorate and can he constitute an important pool of votes?
Eric Zemmour’s initial bet was to split Marine Le Pen’s score. He completely failed: not only did he not split his score but he gave him a “certificate of respectability”. It allowed him to avoid direct accusations, in particular on his pro-Russian position: he served as a lightning rod for Marine Le Pen in the Ukrainian crisis because it was he who was struck by lightning and he made him appear as relatively less radical. He helped him complete his demonization enterprise… Contrary to what one might have imagined, there is no established far-right, which would be 100% Marine Le Pen if she were alone and which, today, would be divided between Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour. What we actually observe is that in Occitania, Zemmour is strong where Marine Le Pen is strong. In other words, by competing with each other, the two feed each other. We have reached an ideological and territorial truth in this election. Ideological because Zemmour opened the Overton window (that is to say the scope of what can be said and discussed within a company, editor’s note) speaking, for example, of Pétain who would have saved Jews or of the great replacement. And by opening this window, he opened a boulevard of legitimacy to Marine Le Pen! This had territorial repercussions: where Zemmour had an influence, it was not necessarily to the detriment of Marine Le Pen but by going to draw from the spectrum of the far right available, that is to say in the radicalized electorate of the traditional right. So yes, Eric Zemmour’s electorate can constitute a reserve of votes for Marine Le Pen. But watch out for voiceovers…
We find ourselves today with the same duel in the 2nd round as in 2017. What has changed, who could disperse the votes of voters differently?
Traditionally, the far-right candidate made a very good score in the 1st round then, in the 2nd round, he played the role of useful idiot because, diluted in an extreme position, he had no voice reserves . This favored his adversary, within a republican front. Today, the situation is very different: Marine Le Pen has reserves of votes available: those of Zemmour, Dupont-Aignan and part of the electorate of Valérie Pécresse. Which could bring it to more than 33%. On the other hand, is the theoretical beneficiary of the isolation of the RN candidate really that beneficial? Apparently yes, because most of the other candidates have called to vote against Marine Le Pen or for Emmanuel Macron. But will these calls to vote be successful? Not necessarily. Pécresse’s call to vote has been damaged by certain statements, and Yannick Jadot’s call comes up against the fact that some Green voters do not consider that Emmanuel Macron has served an ecologically correct mandate and are therefore reluctant to vote for him. . He should be able to count on part of the electorate of Jean Lassalle and Anne Hidalgo. Which can make 34%. We are therefore rather in a relatively equal playing situation.
It is therefore the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon who will be the arbiter of this 2nd round?
Much rests heavily on the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, yes. We can imagine that the CSP+ who voted “useful” for him will vote for Emmanuel Macron because they perceive the danger of the seizure of power by Marine Le Pen. But there is greater doubt about his popular vote. Emmanuel Macron would be inspired to examine the situation taking into account all populations. And I find that this is what is missing and is dangerous…
Do you consider that there is therefore a real risk that the Republican front will not hold on April 24?
Yes, there is a real danger. Any historical comparison being to be made with great caution, we are in a scenario which very much resembles the German scenario of Hitler’s rise to power, with the Communists who viewed the Socialists as their worst enemy and vice versa… The situation is much smoother than 2017, in the sense that anything can happen as everything keeps moving in contradictory directions.
Given this context, could the results of the legislative elections not be aligned with those of the presidential election?
It is possible that in the event of a narrow election of Emmanuel Macron, there will be a sort of recomposition on the right between him and Les Républicains so as to consolidate the Macronist position, by completing the capture of all the electorate of the so-called “republican” right. It is also possible that after narrowly falling below the qualification bar, LFI achieves interesting scores where, in particular, there will be competition between candidates from Marine Le Pen and candidates from Eric Zemmour. Participation will likely be lower and the qualification bar for the second round may be too high for many 3rd candidates. It is therefore not impossible for the left to disappear from many polls in the second round… Will it manage to put on a somewhat credible patch? Or will it ignore this deadline and then recompose itself? But then on what basis? Huge construction site. But there are sites more unworthy than this… Of course, the situations will be very different depending on the constituency: Ariège’s Mélenchonisme risks dominating, LREM should be hegemonic in Aveyron and it is not impossible that the RN is progressing in the Gard.
