Asia Plus Securities revealed that expectations for BIG have returned again after the release of the movie “Thee Yod 2” and created the strongest opening phenomenon of a Thai movie ever. It should create a positive impact on 4th quarter profits, while the 3rd quarter profit trend will be seasonally weak. There is only one film that will receive more than 100 million baht Profit is expected to be 43 million baht, down 59% from last year.
Even if there were no profits in the third quarter, the movie theater industry will not die as long as good movies are released. If the list of films released in the 4th quarter, continuing to 2025, is considered, MAJOR operating results are believed to return to growth. Give investment weight to Outperform, valuing the relevant price at 21.50 baht, with extensive UPSIDE and protection from the share buyback project worth 1,000 million baht in the period 16 July 2024-16 January 25.
BIG profit in the 3rd quarter is expected to be 43 million baht, a decrease of 59% from the previous year from the year TO BIG, it recorded tax income from the sale of MPIC shares in the amount of 100 million baht, and must this quarter to pay MUCH tax at the standard rate. Movie theater revenue for the third quarter is expected to be 780 million baht, a decrease of 5% from the previous year.
Not many Hollywood blockbusters are released. In this quarter, a total of 61 films were released, including 13 Thai films and 48 Hollywood films, with films bringing in more than 100 million baht, counting revenue in from only major movie theaters, namely “Deadpool 3” grossed 178 million baht, while “Wiman Nam” was the highest Thai film, making 93 million baht.
For other businesses, including the popcorn and beverage or “Enhancement” business, revenue is expected to decrease 12% from last year, due to a decrease in in-house and out-of-home sales. – game. Because the films released in this quarter are small films. and many Thai movies are shown. As a result, the patterns on the popcorn buckets are not as attractive as those from Hollywood blockbusters. In addition, MAJOR has reduced promotion and raised the price of popcorn. in the delivery channel to match the low production costs
As for the advertising business in movie theaters, revenue decreased by 5% from last year due to weak movie formats. An industry that continues to grow revenue is the bowling industry. Revenue is expected to grow 8% from last year from aggressive marketing among corporate customers and retail store business.
However, Asia Plus Securities rates MOR an Outperform investment, even though the earnings outlook for the third quarter is unclear. This makes the first 9 months profit estimate only 47% of the 2024 profit estimate which the research department expects to be 879 million baht Therefore, the research department may need to estimate profit 2024 to reduce from the original 15-20%. which has the opportunity to create surprises, both positive and negative So the research department asked to wait to see the income of the film. before deciding to change the forecast after the 3rd quarter results are announced in mid-November.
Even if there is a low risk in the 2024 profit forecast, the research department still has a positive view on the implementation of the MAJOR strategy, including increasing the number of movie theaters in the provinces. Finding growth opportunities in the popcorn industry outside of movie theaters In addition there is a good response for Thai films. With many Thai films making over hundreds of millions of baht in revenue after just a few days of release, MUCH doesn’t have to rely on big Hollywood blockbusters like before.
In addition, 2025 will also be the year that the world’s largest film production companies prepare to release blockbuster films such as Avatar 3, Mission Impossible 8 and Captain America, while many of Thai film producers also produce a large number of Thai films for the market. Therefore, it has a direct positive impact on MASS as a leader in the Thai movie theater market with a market share of up to 70%. of 19 times, weighting the Outperform investment by price. The amount does not exceed 1,000 million baht The share redemption period is scheduled from July 16, 2024 to January 16, 2025.
