The “Yuichiro Tamaki theory” as prime minister is about to explode…The “worst case scenario” awaits Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who hopes that everything will be cancelled. not “politics and money.”

A tectonic shift similar to a “government election”

The <a href="https://www.world-today-news.com/report-on-the-15-wards-in-tokyo-where-the-joint-resistance-collapsed-six-months-ago-constitutional-and-communist-parties-compete-a-battle-between-5-reformers-from-the-liberal-democratic-party-aims/" title="Report on the 15 wards in Tokyo where the "joint resistance" collapsed six months ago constitutional and communist parties compete, a battle between 5 reformers from the Liberal Democratic Party aims to being the "youngest": Tokyo Shimbun TOKYO Web”>2024 House of Representatives election (announced on October 15, votes counted on October 27) was held and successfully completed. I would like to express my gratitude to the members of the various parties who fought the debate, the secretaries, party officials, and other workers, as well as the election management committees of each town, ward, town and village, and its -everyone who went to the polling booth.

In conclusion, as reported, the total number of ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, is 215 seats, which is less than the majority of seats in the House of Representatives (233 seats ), which was used as a guide for victory/loss, and the future movement of elected independent members, etc. It is also possible that the administration of Shigeru Ishiba will be defeated.

On the other hand, this election was a national election held in a larger context, and the content showed a seismic shift that was closer to a “government election” than I was expectation We look back at the trends in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election (announced on September 12, votes counted on September 27), the Constitutional Democratic Party representative election, and the Komeito Party representative election New, held before they were announced. done.

This article was written on the evening of October 28, and the situation may change depending on subsequent changes in the political situation and situation. For various surveys, unless otherwise indicated, door-to-door visits, exit polls, RDD, and Internet panels are based on the results of our own research network, including Rakuten Insight , Monitoras, and a mass media company that conducted the study together. .

Photo provided by Kyodo News

Representative Tamaki of the People’s Democratic Party answering a media interview = October 27, 2024, 10:00 PM, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo

The number of votes received by the Constitutional Democratic Party is “almost unchanged”

In terms of the number of seats, the Liberal Democratic Party lost 191 seats (247 seats before the election, down 56 seats), and the Komeito Party lost 24 seats (32 seats before the election, down 8 seats). , the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan had 148 seats (98 seats before the election, an increase of 50 seats), and the People’s Democratic Party had 28 seats (7 seats before the election, an increase of 21 seats, but lost 3) . Seats won due to insufficient list of candidates in proportional representation).

On the other hand, the Constitutional Party, which should have made significant progress in terms of the number of seats, only received about 28.7% of the votes, but in reality, the number total of votes he received is almost the same. This is due to the fact that the number of votes for the Liberal Democratic Party fell by 11% from the previous survey to 38.2% (about 20% less for the Liberal Democratic Party alone), and the survey showed pre- publication that the win/loss rate was around 130%, up from 70% in the highly contested constituency, which was expected to be a wide swing, there were 18 wins and 43 losses the party out of 61 constituencies (33 wins and 7 losses for the Constitution), so it can be said that the direct reason for the big loss is that the LDP lost to the Constitution candidate because of support slow to the Masu Liberal Democratic Party.

Looking at proportions, the turnout in this election was 53.84%, 2.08 percentage points lower than the previous election. The number of eligible voters is 104.17 million, and the total number of votes cast is 2.16 million less than the previous election.

In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party’s 19.91 million votes last time were 14.58 million this time (5.33 million votes decreased, a decrease of 27%), while the Party’s votes were 11.49 million Constitutional Democrat last time 11.55 million votes this time, for total. of 216 votes Even though there are less than 10,000 votes, the number of votes has hardly changed.