Yesterday, the Taiwan Institute of Economics and Economics released a survey on the business climate in October. Operating climate tests for the manufacturing, services and construction sectors all showed a downward trend in October. The manufacturing industry declined for ten consecutive months, setting an all-time low since May 2020. . Zhang Jianyi, president of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, warned that “the worst is yet to come” for the overall economic situation. At least until the second quarter of 2023, uncertainty is indeed still very high.
Zhang Jianyi said major forecasting agencies expect US economic growth next year to be close to zero. He believes the Fed’s interest rate hike will only turn a big hawk into a small hawk and will not turn into a dove for the time being; Coupled with the European debt crisis, most major forecasting agencies are not optimistic about the European economy next year and even believe that there could be a recession.
However, Zhang Jianyi believes that what the world cares most about is whether China’s dynamic zero policy can be relaxed, because this has a great impact on the fluidity of the global supply chain. Taiwan’s economic growth next year will be driven by domestic demand, but Taiwan’s economic growth will not decline next year, but will slow down.
Sun Ming-te, director of the Prosperity Forecasting Center of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, pointed out that the operating climate test point for the manufacturing industry fell only 0.43 in October, and the decline was narrowed. inventory, domestic consumption is also recovering and is expected to be stuck in second place next year Ji Chunyan will come?
Sun Ming-teh said that as regards Taiwan’s economic growth next year, the Taiwan Institute of Economics and Business has set the tone at “low growth” and “average inflation”, but we must pay attention to the development of zero-clearing policy in mainland China, because once the zero-clearing policy is relaxed, retaliatory consumption may occur, which in turn drives up prices in mainland China, and we must be careful of mainland China’s counterattack.
The test point for the manufacturing business climate in October 2022 is 84.20, which is 0.43 points lower than last month’s revised 84.63, and the decline has slowed since the Taiwan Institute of Economics, according to the Taiwan Institute of Economics. previous year, but still shows a downward trend for ten consecutive months, a new low since May 2020.
The business climate test point for the services sector in October 2022 was 91.09, a decline of 3.65 from the previous month’s revision, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months. The operating climate test point for the construction sector in October 2022 was 85.10, down 5.24 from September, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months.
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