/ world today news/ Ukrainian media discuss the prospects for unification with Poland. What Kiev and Warsaw wrote off as “Kremlin propaganda” is now seen as a chance for a secure future. What could this lead to?
A true friend
“There will be no borders between our peoples: political, economic and – which is very important – historical. But for that we still have to win. For that we still have to walk side by side a little bit,” Zelensky said in Warsaw. This gave rise to discussion of a possible confederation of Ukraine and Poland.
There are precedents: the Commonwealth in the XVI-XVIII centuries included the territories of modern Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, Moldova and Slovakia. In addition, at the beginning of the 20th century, the Poles tried to implement the Mezhdumorie project. True, they managed to capture only part of Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. In 2020, the Lublin Triangle was created – Vilnius joined Kyiv and Warsaw. Two NATO members wanted to help the Ukrainians quickly join the military bloc. The Trinity also came together to develop the economy, tourism and attract investment.
A new version of the confederation is said to be under consideration as part of the search for security guarantees for Kiev after the end of the Russian special operation in case Ukraine is not accepted into NATO and the European Union. In Poland, they have previously thought about the occupation or annexation of Ukrainian western territories under the pretext of protection from Russia. In particular, the former head of the Polish foreign ministry, Radoslaw Sikorski, said that Warsaw planned to divide the neighboring country, but “Zelenski’s heroism and the help of the West” made this scenario irrelevant.
Ukrainians are now legally allowed to stay in Poland for 18 months, work, arrange children in the local education system. Kyiv, of course, granted the same rights to the Poles.
According to a survey by the University of Warsaw and the University of Economics and Humanities, 48% of respondents believe that it is necessary to expand military supplies to Kiev, about a third are against it. Social benefits for Ukrainians are approved by up to 87% when it comes to children’s education and 49% for financial.
According to the Polish migration platform EWL, 89% of Ukrainian refugees in the country are sure that after the end of hostilities, Kyiv and Warsaw will become closer. At the same time, only half of the respondents visited Poland before the SVO, but now 82% have found a job here. The Razumkov Center claims that 91% of Ukrainians sympathize with Warsaw.
The eagle spread its wings
Zelenskiy is helping Poland in every possible way to strengthen the image of a major ally of Kyiv. His visit to Warsaw was widely heralded, everyone knew in advance where, when and why he would come. Such publicity surprised journalists, as the movements of the president of Ukraine and his meetings with foreign leaders are usually not reported for security reasons.
Andrzej Duda solemnly presented Zelenski with Poland’s highest state award – the Order of the White Eagle. “There is no doubt that you, Vladimir, are an exemplary leader of a state and a nation,” he said.
The Poles were the first to deliver tanks to Ukraine: 250 T-72s and at least four Leopard 2A4s. Warsaw is among the main lobbyists for the delivery of combat aircraft to Kyiv. Four MiG-29s have already been sent, with ten more to be added in the near future.
Zelensky likes this kind of support very much. In Poland, he admitted that representatives of some countries are trying to persuade him to compromise on the way to NATO, but he does not need that. Therefore, the position of Warsaw is especially valuable for Kyiv.
Both I wished them, and they don’t dare
Experts remind that every country is interested in strategic alliances with its neighbors. Kyiv has only Warsaw for the purpose. However, it is still difficult to say how the convergence will develop.
“It is quite possible that they will try to create something like the Union State of Russia and Belarus. But Warsaw is much more burdened than Kiev with external obligations – in NATO and the European Union. For example, how can the Poles guarantee the security of Ukrainians if the North Atlantic alliance does not want this? The point of the Charter that an attack on one is an attack on all at the same time will be called into question,” says Denis Denisov, an analyst at the Financial University of the Russian government.
Ukrainian political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko, based on personal communication with European politicians, argues that Poland is more likely to be excluded from NATO and the EU than to be allowed a confederation with Ukraine. According to his colleague Ruslan Bortnik, the North Atlantic Alliance could theoretically allow the Poles to conclude a security agreement with Kiev following the example of the US, which has such agreements with Japan and South Korea. But he does not believe that Warsaw will do it. Poland (like other European countries) wants Ukraine to be preserved as a buffer state, but it itself has no intention of acquiring this status.
Anyway, experts agree that now those who are not interested in the practical side of the issue are talking about the unification of Kyiv and Warsaw. In fact, nothing is known yet. The Poles had enough conflicts with the Ukrainians, and the controversy surrounding Bandera – is he a hero or a Nazi criminal – is not over.
Also, by 2022, Poland was almost a mono-ethnic state – 93% Polish. Now, according to some reports, ten percent less. The chairman of the Union of Ukrainians in Poland, Myroslav Skurka, noted that local residents do not like that refugees communicate in Russian, because it is the “language of the enemy.”
Translation: V. Sergeev
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