Table of Contents
Baku (Azerbaijan), report
“Rich countries, pay!” » Branded on cardboard posters or scribbled in felt-tip pen on the body, the slogan is clear. Yet it does not escape from any mouth. On November 16, hundreds of activists surrounded one of the main halls of COP29 in Azerbaijan. A human chain, sinister and silent. Or rather silenced. “We were confined in the corner of a room to muffle our voices”deplores Carin Karl. Beninese, he is one of the architects of the African Caravan. It has been traveling across the continent since 2022 to collect testimonies from victims of the climate crisis: “Baku [la capitale de l’Azerbaïdjan] was to be our final stop. That of the report. Only here, no one listens to civil society. »
Never two without three, they say. In 2022 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and in 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the major climate marches of the last COPs had already taken on an austere veil. Confined to the confines of the negotiation rooms, these mid-COP strolls no longer brighten up the boulevards and avenues of the host cities as tradition once demanded. So to better denounce this gag, the activists walled themselves into silence, broken only by a few snaps of their fingers and muffled purrs evoking anti-capitalist chants.
In the corridors of the Olympic stadium, many observers deplore having witnessed “the worst first week in COP history”. However, this did not lack geopolitical upheavals and distractions. Starting with the fiery speeches of Ilham Aliyev. The president-dictator of Azerbaijan first called oil and gas “gifts of God” before accusing “Emmanuel Macron’s regime” to have committed « crimes » in New Caledonia.
A diatribe to which the French Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, responded by canceling her visit to Azerbaijan. What followed was the slamming of the door by the Argentine head of state, Javier Milei, and his threat to leave the Paris Agreement the day after an interview with the future president of the United States, Donald Trump. Or again, the revelations about the swarming of hydrocarbon lobbyists in the aisles of the COP.
Silent demonstration by activists, November 16, 2024.
© Emmanuel Clévenot / Reporterre
Poker game
Taking stock of progress is unlikely to provide the slightest comfort. The approximately 198 countries participating in the negotiations are tasked with determining the “new quantified collective objective”with the awful acronym “NCQG”. In other words, this is the financial assistance provided by rich countries to developing countries to carry out their ecological transition. However, by the French delegation’s own admission, the mid-term assessment is very gloomy: “We shouldn’t be completely pessimistic, but the reality is that we are clearly stuckdeplores a diplomatic source. We feel like we’ve taken a step back in time. We were further ahead coming out of pre-COP29 than we are now. »
One of the thorniest subjects is that of ” How much “also called « quantum » by diplomats. The beneficiary countries have already played their pawns by putting forward the figure of 1,300 billion dollars per year (around 1,200 billion euros). In other words, thirteen times more than the current 100 billion dollars (95 billion euros), set in 2009.
“At the time of the Covid crisis, leaders were able to mobilize billions of billions of dollars to confront its’insurge Carin Karl. Why wouldn’t they succeed in resolving the climate damage that they themselves have caused to our countries? One thing is certain: we will exert increasing pressure on them. This COP must be a turning point. »
Carin Karl is one of the founders of the African Caravan, which has been traveling the continent since 2022 to collect testimonies from victims of the climate crisis.
© Emmanuel Clévenot / Reporterre
In the eyes of the Italian Chiara Martinelli, European director of the Climate Action Network, the Union is hindering the progress of discussions by refusing to position itself on an amount. A real poker game, fully assumed by French diplomats: “We have no interest in putting a figure on the table nowconfirms a delegate on condition of anonymity. This will be the last piece of the puzzle, the touchstone. Letting go of him today without knowing what we are negotiating on makes no sense. The figure will be released very late. »
Hostage taking
For now, Agnès Pannier-Runacher’s emissaries have another mandate in mind: that of broadening the donor base. Until now, only the United States, Japan, Great Britain, Canada, Switzerland, Turkey, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, Australia and the 27 of the Union participate in filling the envelope, in accordance with agreements signed in 1992 and 2009. “But the world is no longer the same as it was in those timescontinues the diplomat. There must be new contributors. And obviously, that’s the sticking point. We would like champions to come out of the woodwork, but no one has come forward yet. » In their sights: the Gulf countries, Singapore, South Korea and even China.
“Before calling for this enlargement at all costs, we should already have the political courage to collect money from the pockets of billionaires and big polluters”replies Frenchwoman Gaïa Febvre, from the Climate Action Network (RAC). How ? Starting by taxing the largest fortunes, as suggested by Brazilian President Lula da Silva.
A ready-made way out, to put an end to the procrastination of the countries of the North: “A global climate tax on the ultra-rich could raise $2,000 to $3,000 billion per year”insists Nicolas Haeringer, campaign director for 350.org. “It needs to be clarified, but it’s promising”specifies astonishment a French diplomatic source. Adding that, whatever happens, “there is no magic money”.
Read also: At COP29, 60% of those present are men
The fact remains that, for the moment, the discussions have stalled completely. The fault, among other things, is a presidency considered weak. However, this blockage of negotiations also paralyzes other negotiation flows. “On gender issues in particular, we are witnessing a real international backlashdenounces Anne Barre, of the NGO Women Engage for a Common Future. This room has become an object of bargaining for certain delegations. As soon as finance does not move in their direction, they are leading an offensive here aimed at erasing all mentions of human rights and gender diversity. »
An unraveling mainly carried out by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and even Indonesia. “If we do not leave this COP with a new agreement on these issues, we would send a signal to all countries that anti-feminist policies can be carried outshe continues. It would be catastrophic. »
On November 18, the arrival of ministers could mark a new turning point in this COP29. Another hope for political momentum: the parallel opening of the G20, in Brazil, where the heads of state of the most influential countries should also discuss climate finance. A boost that all the activists are calling for in the aisles of the Olympic stadium in Baku, where a very gloomy hypothesis for the climate is already interfering in the conversations. That of a rejection next year, during the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, of a definitive agreement on this famous « quantum ».
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November 18, 2024 at 11:06 a.m.
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What are the potential strategies for holding rich countries accountable for their financial commitments to developing nations in ecological transitions?
1. How can the international community ensure that rich countries fulfill their financial commitments towards helping developing countries transition to ecological sustainability?
2. What measures can be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of climate financing in achieving desired outcomes?
3. Should there be new strategies to mobilize funds from non-traditional sources such as the Gulf countries, Singapore, and China?
4. How can rich countries justify their reluctance to commit more financial resources towards climate change mitigation when they benefit from historical emissions?
5. What are the possible consequences of not reaching an agreement on gender issues and human rights in the climate negotiations?
6. In light of the upcoming G20 summit and the potential return of Trump as US president, what steps must civil society take to push for more ambitious climate policies?
7. What role does independent journalism play in shaping public discourse around climate change and holding governments accountable for their actions and commitments?
