This 7.5 billion debt was budgeted for. However, this is not only about covering old debts, but also about covering at least one hole in the budget. Currently, the hole that has formed in the budget is a little less than 2 billion. This means that the situation in the revenue part of the budget is extremely worrying. This was stated by the economic analyst Mika Zaikova before the PIK agency when asked about the new loan prepared by the government and the finance minister, which will be withdrawn by Bulgaria.
According to her, the low collection of the basic VAT tax, which supports the revenue part and shapes the budget, is alarming. She recalled that the funds collected in the budget already in August this year were 78 million less than those in 2022 in the same period.
“The budget hole in September is already about 780 million, and the hole in August was only 51 million. That is, the revenue part is extremely worrying. It means that the increasing expenses have to be filled from somewhere. This is not only happening because of the weak collections, and VAT revenues are also decreasing because imports are decreasing, which also form VAT in its main part, since in Bulgaria this import is extremely important, for the simple reason that we no longer produce almost anything,” added Zaikova.
According to her, we have a problem with agriculture and the relative share of agricultural production to GDP is decreasing. The analyst estimated that at the moment this share is equal to about 7%, while last year it was over 15%.
“There is also a decrease in industrial production. In August alone, it fell by 11% compared to 2022 and continues to fall. We have not only the closing of productions, but also a huge lack of investments. Investments are those that give birth to new technologies, productions , goods and services with high added value, and which increase the GDP. What Asen Vassilev predicted with the budget in 2023 – growth in the revenue part by 1 billion and 700 million BGN, not only will not happen, but things will become even uglier. We won’t even reach the level of 2022,” Mika Zaikova is categorical.
According to her, the revenue part in this budget does not correspond to its expenditure part. According to her, costs are increasing and will continue to increase. Inflation will rise and the gap in inequality will open menacingly. She recalled that although we are a member of the EU, we are the poorest country and 78% of households cannot heat themselves sufficiently. According to her, 75% of households cannot cover their monthly needs and expenses.
“Prices are constantly rising and will continue to rise because we already have not one but two wars in the region and in the world. The war in Israel is in a region that is the richest in oil, which will affect its price and it will continue to grow. Some of my colleagues predict that the price of a barrel will not only exceed $100 per barrel, but also reach $150 per barrel. This will affect the price of gasoline, which may even reach BGN 4 per liter , if this war expands and cuts off normal oil supply links,” Zaikova added to her analysis.
According to her, the assessment of Asen Vassilev’s work as finance minister is not positive, as well as for the entire government. She recalled that immediately after the vote, Prime Minister Denkov said that everything about energy was a lie and that the state’s finances were in a brilliant state, which, she said, shocked her.
“I ask what is the bright thing, as the hole in the budget is already two billion. It continues to grow and we will borrow. If a year ago borrowing was not a problem and interest was not a problem, now investors want a higher yield. After the last increase in the key interest rate of the ECB reached 4%, which is unprecedented. If we were, a member of the Eurozone and we were a normal country where the rule of law is a fact, then the interest rates would be normal on this new loan, which eventually we will take, I say possibly, because it may turn out that no one will give us money. There was already one such failure in the spring, if you remember, and we could not sell the 10-year shares. If the interest rates even for Germany in its severe situation is 5.2-5.5%, then for us they will be double. This will increase the cost of this new loan by perhaps more than a billion. It will become not 7.5 but 8.5, even nine billion. We will pay all this we Bulgarians because of bad governance. These people do not know what a country is, but they want to rule it, unfortunately for the Bulgarians,” concluded Mika Zaikova.
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2023-10-17 11:26:31
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