The election marathon in India, the world’s most populous country, will begin on April 19.
In the country where 1.4 billion people live, 969 million people will vote in this year’s elections. According to analysis, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is predicted to win the election, the opposition is blaming the government, especially on employment issues.
1) Who will compete?
Modi, from the radical right-wing Indian People’s Party (BJP), wants to maintain his power for the third time in the elections.
There are 40 parties in the alliance led by the BJP. The bloc’s opponent is the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which gathers under the leadership of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC).
The opposition bloc pitted INC Chairman Mallikarjun Kharge against 73-year-old Modi. In addition to 81-year-old Kharge, former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s children Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi are also on the block.
There are 41 different parties in the anti-BJP alliance, including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which rules the state of Delhi.
The detention of AAP’s Delhi State President Arvind Kejriwal on March 21 also drew reaction from the opposition. Kejriwal is accused of irregularities in alcohol sales licenses in Delhi.
Statements from INC and AAP claim that Modi is trying to weaken the opposition with the detention, which came during an election campaign. The BJP denies the allegations.
2) What are the prominent issues in the election?
Modi has been running a campaign on the development of the country, pointing to the recently improving relations with the USA.
American technology giants such as Apple and Dell have recently opened new factories in the country.
The Indian leader also provides free pulses to 800 million poor families, as well as monthly financial support of 1250 Indian Rupees (approximately 485 TL) to women in low-income families.
Against this, the opposition bloc argues that these investments are not reflected in employment figures and points out that unemployment is especially high among young people.
According to data from the Geneva-based International Labor Organization, almost 30 percent of university graduates in India are unemployed. More than half of the country’s population consists of people under the age of 30.
In the report published by the World Bank this month, it was stated that “employment lags behind the growth of the working age population” in India, like other South Asian countries.
Young people who cannot find a job in the private sector in India are struggling fiercely to get a job in government institutions.
R. Ramakumar, economist at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai, commented:
Employment is not keeping up with the demographic expansion of the potential workforce. This is one of the reasons why there are many applications for a small number of positions in the public sector.
INC promises that if it comes to power, 3 million additional jobs will be created in the civil service and the support given to women will be increased.
34-year-old Ganesh Gore, who said that he took the civil service exam 5 times and failed, said, “No politician or party can help us. They are just trying to get money.”
3) How does the election system work?
The ruling BJP party aims to maintain its majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament.
The Lok Sabha determines the prime minister of the country. Then the prime minister chooses the ministers he will work with.
The party that wants to secure a majority in the 543-seat Lok Sabha must win 272 seats.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 296 seats in the parliament, while the radical right-wing alliance it leads has 346 seats in total. INC remained in 50 seats in the elections. The total number of seats of the opposition bloc is 116. The remaining 50 people are independent MPs, while 13 seats are vacant.
In the elections, people will go to the polls in different regions and on different dates. Voting will be held on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and finally on June 1. The results will be announced on June 4.
According to election laws, a voting center must be established at least 2 kilometers from every settlement. In the 2019 elections, at least 1 million centers were established and approximately 1.7 million electronic voting devices were installed in them.
In addition, ensuring election security is among the factors that cause the process to take longer. Holding elections on different dates allows security personnel to be deployed in different regions.
4) What kind of a picture is expected?
In the analysis of Bloomberg, one of the leading media organizations in the USA, it was argued that Modi could win the elections for the third time without much difficulty. It was written in the news that Modi strengthened his hand by highlighting investments especially from technology companies.
UK-based news agency Reuters pointed out that Modi increased the pressure on the opposition with his Hindu nationalist policies.
The news also reminded that the opening of the temple, which was built on the land where a historical mosque used to be located, in the city of Ayodhya in the state of Uttar Pradesh, was opened in January. The analysis argued that religious divisions may gradually increase under the Modi government.
The French news agency AFP wrote that it is not clear whether the unemployment problem will turn into a movement that can remove Modi and the BJP from power.
UK public broadcaster BBC said: “Modi hopes to win a third consecutive term, but the opposition says people could lose many freedoms if he remains in power.”
Independent Turkish, BBC, AFP, Reuters, Bloomberg, Times of India, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, India Economic Times, The Hindu
