The United Nations estimates that the world population will reach 8 billion by mid-November and will continue to increase. However, the pace of growth will tend to be slower and will vary from region to region over the coming decades. The AFP cited some key points from the UN analysis:
● Slowdown in population growth
The United Nations Population Division estimates that Earth’s population will grow to 8 billion by November 15, more than triple the world’s 2.5 billion population in 1950.
However, Rachel Snow, head of the Population and Development section of the United Nations Population Fund, told AFP that the global population growth rate had declined sharply after peaking in the early 1960s. Annual growth fell from 2.1% between 1962 and 1965 to less than 1% in 2020.
The United Nations predicts that population growth is expected to drop to around 0.5% by 2050 as fertility rates continue to decline.
● When did it peak in population?
The United Nations predicts that the world population will continue to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and reach a peak of around 10.4 billion in the 1980s, due to the increase in life expectancy and the number of people of reproductive age.
However, other groups have calculated different numbers.
A 2020 study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated that by 2064 the world population will reach its maximum value, but it will never reach 10 billion by 2100 it will drop to 8.8. billions.
“We are inferior to them (the United Nations) and I think we are for good reasons,” University of Washington Stein professor Emil Vollset, lead author of the IHME study, told AFP. “The population will only reach between 9 billion and 10 billion.
● Decreased fertility
According to UN data, women will have an average of 2.3 children in their lifetime in 2021, compared to about five children in 1950, and the UN expects it to drop to 2.1 by 2050.
● Global aging
An important factor driving global population growth is the continued increase in average life expectancy: 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of 9 years compared to 1990. The United Nations predicts an average life expectancy of 77. , 2 years by 2050.
Combined with declining fertility rates, the percentage of the population over 65 is projected to increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. This global aging population will affect the labor market and national pension systems, also requiring more care for the elderly.
● Diversity like never before
Some significant regional differences below these averages are also worth noting. For example, the United Nations predicts that by 2050, more than half of population growth will come from eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The average age in the different regions also counts, according to Snow, currently 41.7 in Europe and 17.6 in sub-Saharan Africa. The gap “has never been as wide as it is today,” she said.
Snow said the numbers might equalize, but unlike in the past where the median age in countries was mostly younger, “in the future we may be closer in terms of age, mostly older.”
Some experts believe that such regional demographic differences could play an important role in future geopolitics.
● The Indian population will surpass that of China
Another example of the shift in trend is that China and India, the two most populous countries, will swap places as early as 2023, according to UN data.
The United Nations predicts that China’s population of 1.4 billion will eventually begin to decline, dropping to 1.3 billion by 2050. By the end of the century, China’s population could drop to just 800 million.
India’s population is currently slightly below that of mainland China and is expected to surpass that by 2023, rising to 1.7 billion by 2050, even though its fertility rate is already below the replacement level.
The United Nations estimates that by 2050 the United States will remain the third most populous country, but will be on a par with Nigeria at 375 million.
