Without action, the world could warm by a whopping 3.1 degrees C this century, the UN said in a new report published yesterday, the BBC reported.
But how likely is that?
As often happens with the amendment of climate and the science behind it – the answer is complicated.
The report of the UN Emissions Gap shows that if only “current policies” are implemented, the world could warm by up to 3.1C.
That would be “catastrophic” for the world, according to the United Nations. It would lead to a dramatic increase in extreme weather events, including heat waves and floods.
Working out at this level of warming up would be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
But this number isn’t exactly new and needs to be seen in context.
UN projections for temperature rise have remained essentially the same over the past three years since countries met in Glasgow for COP26.
The new report says: “Continuing current policies is estimated to limit global warming to a maximum of 3.1C (range 1.9-3.8C) over the century.”
The latest report from yesterday said that if countries keep the promises they have already made in their plans to cut carbon emissions then temperatures will rise by 2.6 to 2.8C.
And if every country puts those plans into action and meets its existing net-zero commitments, the emissions gap report says the rise could be limited to 1.9C.
These colder scenarios are obviously far from guaranteed, but it has to be said that even a 1.9C rise would be catastrophic. We have warmed our planet by 1.1C so far and are feeling the effects on so many levels, not least an increase in extreme weather and sea level rise.
The UN report said the Paris Agreement‘s goals of keeping global temperatures below 2C while working to stay below 1.5C are now in very serious jeopardy.
However, it is important to keep in mind the timing of this report, coming just weeks before political leaders gather in Azerbaijan for COP29.
The countries agreed to present new plans to reduce carbon emissions by next spring. They will cover the ten years to 2035.
Scientists understand that if the emissions curve does not bend by then, there will likely be extremely challenging temperature rises of around or above 3C.
This next set of plans, called nationally determined contributions, has been described by the UN climate chief as one of the most important documents produced this century.
So this report should be seen as part of a push for higher ambitions from world leaders.
What else is new in the report?
There are a number of factors that are new and helping to increase emissions according to the UN.
The flight boom in 2023 saw aviation carbon emissions rise 19.5% compared to 2022 as passenger travel returned to near pre-pandemic levels.
Emissions from road transport also increased, but there were other key factors, including the impact of climate change, rising temperatures forcing people to resort to more air conditioning.
“We are seeing, or starting to see, more severe impacts of climate change, so heat waves have increased the demand for energy to cool homes and offices,” said UNEP’s Dr Ann Ohlhoff.
“They have also affected hydroelectric power generation, which has declined. And what do you do next when it falls? You switch to more coal.
Another element is the transition to electricity for vehicles and heating – the growing number of electric vehicles and heat pumps also increase the demand for energy, which is often met by fossil fuel sources.
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