Biden assured that he is not afraid of Russia
Expert Kristine Bērzina’s column in the program “Fuse”
Security policy expert Kristīne Bērziņa.
Photo: Toms Šics / Latvian Radio
Kristīne Bērziņa, an expert on security policy and a researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington, will highlight the most important events of the week in the context of the world and Latvia, as well as those that may have been missed in the mass of information, as well as give a comment on why they are important and what impact could be caused.
The past seven days have been very productive in foreign policy. The new Prime Minister of Moldova has said that Transnistria should be demilitarized. The British Prime Minister expressed his indignation – “what are you saving weapons for, the West, we are giving them to the Ukrainians!” German officials have also finally stepped up and indicated that Ukraine must not give up its territories.
The Munich Security Conference was also held, as well as the big event – the sudden arrival of US President Joe Biden in Ukraine. The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin also gave his big speech.
But of all those mentioned, Berziņa singled out Biden’s visit and speech in Kyiv as very important.
“Before this week, the talk was that Biden would fly to Warsaw and give a speech from Warsaw, which would have shown the world that Biden is afraid of Russia, and in a sense that means giving in to Putin. Now it is clear that the United States is not going to give the Kremlin that kind of power “, emphasized Berzina.
US President Joe Biden on a visit to Kyiv
Photo: AP, Evan Vucci
“On the other hand, if you look at the Munich Security Conference and the very loud support from Germany and Great Britain about the need to strongly support Ukraine – it was expected, but it is very, very good. But the Chinese foreign minister was also in Munich, and there was no that feeling after China wants to side with the West. Then the Chinese foreign minister flew to Moscow. And the US secretary of state, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, warned that China could soon support Russia with military aid,” she said.
Therefore, on the one hand, represented by the West, NATO and the European Union, everyone is united and agrees on the necessary support for Ukraine, but on the other hand, Russia, and apparently also China, are absolutely not going to give in.
“The question is, what does that future look like for us? Because they don’t want to make concessions, but we won’t let Ukraine lose,” emphasized Berziņa.
Three conclusions of the first year of the war
The first year of the war in Ukraine made it possible to draw several conclusions, but unfortunately not very optimistic ones, the security policy expert admitted.
“The first conclusion is that the world is becoming more dangerous.
The West has strengthened, and the Ukrainians are always ready to protect their land, but the other side has not yet learned a lesson in any place and is not going to give in,” Berziņa admitted.
“The question is what is the future of the world going to be? Are authoritarian powers going to be able and benefit from oppressing their neighbors now and trying to get their way through military means? We haven’t seen that for decades now, and there was a sense that this will be our new normal reality, but it turned out that this reality is not in the interests of many other countries.Everyone is now shaken up and realizes that they can’t sleep anymore – but what next?
Is it hardly possible now to completely bounce back and protect the peace and prosperity that we have taken for granted since 1991?” she asked.
The second conclusion of the expert is that Russia and China will take the first steps to destabilize the situation.
“We in Europe, the USA, the West, Japan, Australia already want the world to be the way it has been since 1991 – with open borders, trade, travel, greater freedoms and greater profits. But the other side is changing a lot – Russia wants another everyday reality, China wants to gain power,” Bērziņa assessed.
“These great powers will fight for opportunities for a brighter future for them, and we will have to fight back.
The decisive ones in this case are a few people who are greedy for power in Beijing and Moscow, and the rest of us will have to fight back with enormous work and, for example, in the case of Ukraine, with Ukrainian blood. It’s pessimistic, but if we look at what has happened, how we try to include China in normal talks in Munich, but China still runs back to Putin … it will not be easy to turn the situation in our favor,” she concluded.
The third conclusion of the expert – it is good that NATO and the European Union have joined forces.
“This week there were announcements about joint procurement, that for example ammunition or other things can be bought at the level of the European Union – very good that the European Union can remain a more strategic union, not purely economic or political, but also take on defense and security issues,” admitted Berziņa.
At the same time, the security policy expert emphasized that this will not be enough.
“If you look at how realistic the deliveries of Leopard tanks are to Ukraine, how ready these tanks are, how many tanks there are in which country in general – these are all painful questions. Defense has not been invested as it should have been. And we really need to step up now and we must produce something with which we will be able to protect ourselves. Let those who want to overthrow our world of values of peace and law see that we can protect ourselves, that it is not worth trying,” Bērziņa assesses.
Predictions about the future
It is not easy to predict the course of the war, but seeing the current situation in the world, Bērziņa, asked to answer “yes” or “no” to 10 questions, predicted the future as follows:
After a year, will the Western countries have handed over at least one combat-capable military aircraft to Ukraine?
Yes.
Will the war be over in a year?
No.
Will the conflict be frozen in a year?
Maybe.
Will Crimea be controlled by one of the warring parties in a year?
Yes.
Will it be Russia?
Probably yes.
Will Putin be the president of Russia in a year?
Probably yes.
Will Lukashenko be the president of Belarus in a year?
Also probably yes.
Will there be more soldiers of NATO forces in Latvia in a year than now?
Yes.
What is the biggest puzzle you would like answered in the next year?
“The big question is whether the Ukrainian people would be willing to conclude a truce or more or less peace if Crimea is not included in it, because the duration of the war will depend on it. It is a big puzzle, but only Ukraine itself will be able to answer it,” Berziņa concludes.
