The height of American arrogance was the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when Washington dreamed of reshaping not just Iraq and Afghanistan (invaded two years earlier), but the entire Middle East. . The United States has overestimated the ability of its military power to generate real political change, while underestimating the impact of its free-market economic model on global finance. By the end of the decade US troops were mired in two counter-insurgency wars as a financial crisis deepened the inequalities caused by US-led globalization.
The degree of unipolarity that prevailed during this period is a relatively rare thing in history, but since then the world has returned to a more normal situation of multipolarity, while China, Russia, India, Europe and other centers are strengthening their power relative to America. The geopolitical consequences of the Afghan fiasco are likely to be modest: America survived another humiliating defeat when it withdrew from Vietnam in 1975, and was able to restore its preeminence in just over a decade. The much more serious challenge that threatens the world status of the United States is indeed domestic.
Difficult consensus for American society
This polarization first manifested itself over conventional issues such as taxes and abortion, but has since metastasized into a bitter fight over cultural identity. A serious external threat like a global pandemic should normally have prompted citizens to come together around a common response. But the Covid-19 crisis has instead deepened America’s divisions: social distancing, mask-wearing and vaccination have been seen not as public health measures but as political markers. These conflicts have spread to all aspects of life, from sports to the brands of products that Americans, Democrats and Republicans, consume.
This polarization has directly affected foreign policy. During the Obama years, the Republicans adopted an inflexible posture and slammed the Democrats for having advocated the Russian reset and shown great naivety with regard to Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump upended the table by waving laurels for the Russian president and today a good half of Republicans believe that the Democrats pose a greater threat to the American way of life than Russia.
geopolitical divisions
The consensus seems more solid regarding China: both Republicans and Democrats believe it is a threat to democratic values. But this is where America runs up against its limits. If it were to come under a direct Chinese attack, Taiwan would indeed constitute a test of quite a different magnitude than Afghanistan for American foreign policy. Will the United States be ready to sacrifice its children to defend the island’s independence? Would they risk a military conflict with Russia if it invaded Ukraine? These are serious questions that are not easy to answer, but the debate over the national interest of the United States will probably be conducted by considering above all how it can affect the rivalry between the two major parties.
The worst political debacle of the Biden administration’s first year was its failure to develop an adequate plan in the face of the rapid collapse of Afghanistan. President Joe Biden has said a withdrawal is necessary so he can focus on the bigger challenges of China and Russia. I hope he really means it. President Barack Obama never managed to refocus on Asia because the United States remained focused on counterinsurgency in the Middle East. In 2022, the administration must redeploy both resources and policymaker attention with the goal of deterring our geopolitical rivals and bringing us closer to our allies.
The United States is unlikely to regain its former hegemonic status, nor should it seek to do so. All they can hope for is to help preserve, in cooperation with like-minded countries, a world order conducive to democratic values. Whether they can achieve this will depend on their ability to recreate a sense of national identity and common purpose at home.
Challenges publishes a non-exhaustive version of the World Ahead 2022 of The Economist
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