As indicated by the bank’s economists, in 2023 the world economy will rather see economic processes calm down and return to the old regularities. But – as they pointed out – it will not be an easy year. “While we agree with the widespread view that inflation will reverse, we do not believe in a soft landing scenario,” they wrote. In their opinion, the world economy is slowing down and will be slowing down.
They indicated that they expect a recession in the US and the euro zone, and they do not believe that China will save the world economy. As for Poland, however, they pointed out that in Poland the slowdown started earlier and the rebound in domestic demand will be faster, which will be helped by public investments. “However, economic troubles in the world will significantly limit the pace of recovery in 2023. (…) We believe that the Polish economy will grow by 0.8 percent.” – forecast.
In their opinion, the first stage of disinflation will be fast, because pandemic and war disturbances, such as the avalanche increase in energy prices and the disruption of supply chains, are ending. They explained that energy prices in Europe will not be as high as in the summer of 2022. Moreover, as they pointed out, international trade is “good again”, which means that in 2023 most of the consumer basket will become more and more expensive. ” In Poland, inflation will fall to 7.2 percent at the end of the year and will amount to 12.2 percent throughout 2023.” – they wrote.
They indicated that the rate hikes of the main central banks will end in the first half of 2023. They believe that the economic downturn and the drop in inflation will give central banks room to cut interest rates. “In our opinion, it will be higher in the United States and in the euro zone than in Poland,” they wrote.
author: Ewa Wesołowska
