Washington, Nov. 2. (Adnkronos) – The world does not vote for the president of the United States, but will have to live with the profound global consequences that the election of Donald Trump: What's behind the US President's Baltimore attack”>Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could have. Consequences for the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, for key alliances such as NATO, relations with European allies, and conversely adversary countries such as Russia and competitors such as China. Let’s see the positions of the two candidates compared on the hottest foreign policy dossiers.
Both Harris and Trump are convinced that the war in Gaza must end after more than a year, but they have different positions on how this should happen. The Democrat supports the negotiations that the Biden administration has been carrying out for months, which provides for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip and a “clear path” towards the formation of the Palestinian state, as part of the two-state solution constantly reiterated by Joe Biden .
During the election campaign he also took a clearer position than the administration in supporting the population of Gaza for the 43 thousand victims, the suffering, hunger and destruction they are experiencing. But she does not support calls for a stop to the sending of US weapons to Israel, which could create problems for her with the vote of the left-wing Democrats and Arab Americans.
Harris-Trump, latest polls: tycoon in the lead in 7 key states, but the dem recovers
Trump, however, does not oppose Israel’s military victory in Gaza and does not rule out some form of Israeli control or occupation of the Strip, with the return of settlers. In his first administration he did not give active support to the formation of the Palestinian state, ordering the transfer of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli control of the Golan, occupied by Syria in the Six Day War in 1967.
With a conflict that has now spread for a month not only to Hezbollah but to the whole of Lebanon, the policy towards Iran of the two candidates is important, especially in light of the risk of an open conflict with Israel, after the recent missile launches between the two countries. Harris condemns Iran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas, but Trump claims to have abandoned the nuclear deal with Tehran, signed in 2015 by Barack Obama, which did not do enough to stop Iran’s “negative influences” with the support for anti-Israel groups in the region. The abandonment of the treaty allowed Iran to move forward with the enrichment of uranium, a key ingredient of the atomic weapons that Tehran is aiming for.
These elections could make a clear difference to the conflict in Ukraine. The Ukrainians fear that, in the event of victory, Trump, who did not hesitate to say that the Russian invasion was the fault of Volodymyr Zelensky and in the September debate did not want to say whether he wants a Ukrainian victory, would force them into a quick peace favorable to Moscow, and for this reason they hope for Harris’ victory and the continuation of US military support.
Trump for his part since the beginning of the conflict, which with him in the White House, he says, would never have broken out given his relationship with Vladimir Putin, claims to be able to end it in a matter of days. Harris, however, said that if Trump had been president at the time of the invasion, “Putin would now be sitting in Kiev” and that the alleged affinity between the tycoon and the Moscow strongman is a sign of his weakness.
Trump has never provided details on how he intends to put an end to the conflict, but in recent days the Financial Times wrote that his team is working on a plan to freeze the war, minimize the involvement of the United States and transfer much of the economic burden and the ‘oversight’ of the peace process. This would mean creating autonomous zones and demilitarized zones on both sides of the border and without Ukraine joining NATO, thus satisfying Putin’s demands.
With whom, according to the revelations of a new book by Bob Woodward, Trump has spoken at least seven times since he left the White House. The Kremlin denied these contacts, but, to a direct question, the former president replied: “I don’t comment on the matter, but if I had had those talks, it would have been a smart move.”
In the eyes of European allies, Harris arrives with the reassurance of being part of Joe Biden’s administration which has directed its transatlantic policy to the slogan “America is back”, America is back, after the Trump years. But at the same time there is a certain amount of uncertainty about how, if the facts prove it, the Democrat, who so far has not taken any foreign policy decisions on her own, will be able to move in the geopolitical scenario.
On the other hand, the European allies know firsthand Trump’s attitude, the continuous attacks on the European Union – – with some exceptions, such as Viktor Orban, the sovereignist Hungarian prime minister close to Putin – and also on NATO itself, so much so that some openly express the fear that a new Trump presidency could face the taboo of a US exit from the Alliance.
Even in one of his last rallies, last Monday in Pennsylvania, Trump – who was a great supporter of Brexit – had ironic words towards “the EU, with all those small countries that get together”, threatening to make the Europeans “a big price” in terms of duties, if they continue to “not buy our cars, our agricultural products, while they sell millions and millions of cars in the USA”. However, it must be underlined what Politico defines as a “difficult truth”, that is, that regardless of who wins, Trump or Harris, on November 5 “Europe has already lost” since “American interest in the continent has been declining since the end of the Cold War and neither candidate can bring back the transatlantic era of the early 1990s.”
Trump and Harris have both taken a tough stance on China, their main rival in trade, defense and geopolitical alliances. They accuse Beijing of stealing intellectual property and unfairly providing subsidies to the tech and manufacturing industries to the detriment of American business.
If re-elected, Trump promises to resume the ‘tariff war’ waged against China when he was in the White House, reaching tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products. But at the same time, he does not hide his admiration for Xi Jinping, like the one he has for all strong men with absolute power that he, he admitted, would like to have even if only for a day. The tycoon defined the Chinese president as “intelligent”, admiring the way he governs “with an iron fist”: “He is for China, I am for the USA, but apart from that we love each other”.
Harris is expected to maintain trade restrictions imposed by Biden, who has maintained and increased some of Trump’s tariffs, including 100% for electric vehicles, 50% for solar panels and 25% for EV batteries. But he criticizes his opponent’s plan for blanket tariffs, saying they ultimately result in a tax on consumers. The Democrat will continue strengthening diplomatic ties with Asia-Pacific countries to counter Chinese influence in the region, and expressed support for maintaining the status quo in Taiwan, one of the points of tension between Washington and Beijing. While Trump’s less predictable approach to foreign policy could create tensions with Asian allies, it is unclear how he intends to manage relations with Taiwan. During his first administration, Washington increased arms sales and military cooperation with the island. But at the same time, the tycoon said that Taipei should pay the US for military protection.
