Analyzing the present to imagine the future sometimes causes paralyzing fear, the opposite effect to what is intended. If the climate crisis is going to end everything irremediably, why make an effort to fight? The study of the future can be a double-edged sword if correct and constructive conclusions are not drawn.
The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) has worked along these lines, publishing the book Infectious diseases in 2050. In an attempt to elucidate future problems to combat them in time and design prevention strategies. If the surprise factor of covid-19 was key to the disaster it caused, foresight will save lives.
The SEIMC estimates that infectious diseases will be the first cause of death by disease in 2050. The high genetic variability of respiratory viruses, the lack of prediction of genetic changes and the existence of animal reservoirs suggest that the appearance of future pandemics is a real threat. In fact, the book understands that it is “the emergence of new viruses of zoonotic origin is very likely“, as are the coronavirus and monkeypox.
Mainly, the biggest concern is about multiresistant bacteria, those that do not respond to the effect of three or more antibiotics. “By 2050, the continued increase in infections caused by antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and fungi, will put modern medicine at risk“.
The recipes to avoid this scenario go through “implementing new methods of microbiological diagnosis that improve the identification of microorganisms (and their mechanisms of resistance to antimicrobials) that cause infections in immunosuppressed patients,” says the book.
“These new methods must pursue (while maintaining their diagnostic reliability) the speed of obtaining results. We must have surveillance systems that quickly identify and efficacy the appearance of new transmissible biological agents of medical importance. At a therapeutic level, new antimicrobial agents effective against multiresistant bacteria, emerging fungi, viruses and parasites must be developed,” he continues.
The effects of climate change will also appear if action is not taken accordingly. Not surprisingly, experts such as Fernando Valladares prefer to speak of the environmental crisis as an umbrella in which other crises later appear, such as economic, resource or health crises. The weather rules everything.
The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology warns that the effect of climate change on the distribution of various arthropods that transmit infectious diseases and the migratory habits of species that act as their reservoirs, can cause epidemics of dengue, Zika or Chikungunya in Spain.
In addition, the migratory movements of people caused by scarcity, climatic problems or lack of resources, will lead to diseases eradicated in the West and neglected in poor countries increasing their presence.
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