As early as 2014, shortly after the annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the word in a televised speech.
Last week, Russian General Rustam Minnekayev said that Russia would not only control eastern Ukraine, but also take over southern Ukraine and create a land corridor to the border with Moldova.
At the meeting in general that one of the goals of phase two of the war is to establish full control, not only over the Donbas, but also in the south along the Black Sea coast all the way to the Moldovan border.
New Russia
General Minnekayev’s words clearly point to what Putin’s real plan is.
For the President of Russia has a name for the geographical area that the general is talking about, namely Novorossiya, or in Norwegian: New Russia.
When Putin spoke about Novorossiya in the TV speech, he said the following: – I want to remind you of what was called Novorossiya during the tsarist era: Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa. This was not part of Ukraine at that time.
– NEW RUSSIA: This is what the map would look like if Russia conquered the whole area that is referred to as “Novorossiya”. Photo: Graphics by Helge Knudsen / TV 2
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The name “Novorossiya” dates from the 18th century, when the area was incorporated into Russian rule under Catherine the Great.
Vision for the future
Although Putin’s vision is to conquer the entire southern part of Ukraine and form New Russia, many military experts doubt whether Russia is militarily capable of carrying out the plan.
Experts also believe that General Minnekayev took a little hard in when he said that Russia will take control of the whole of southern Ukraine.
– I do not think one should take it so seriously until someone else says it. It may be that the general took a little too hard, says Tor Bukkvoll in FFI.
Bukkvoll is a political scientist and chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), with Russian and Ukrainian security policy as special fields. He explains that Russia defends Kherson county in the south.
– LITTLE PROBABLE: Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at FFI, says an expansion in “New Russia” is not realistic yet. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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Does not write off the plans
– I do not think they have plans to expand west from Kherson immediately, It is because they do not have enough forces for it at the moment, says Bukkvoll.
The lead researcher says this is an area Putin would like to have control over, and does not rule out the possibility that Russia may expand further south in Ukraine.
– In the event of a takeover, it may be possible. In that case, it depends on a victory in the Donbas. A victory where they do not use up their land forces. They must get such a quick victory that there are enough land forces left, but it does not look very likely, says Bukkvoll.
British intelligence has announced that Russia will make every effort to gain ground and advance in the Donbas area by May 9, the date of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
– Unrealistic
Lieutenant Colonel and head of research at the Staff School, Tormod Heier, also says that General Minnekajev’s statements about taking control of the whole of southern Ukraine are unrealistic.
– LEADER: Research leader and Lieutenant Colonel Tormod Heier at the Staff College at the Norwegian Defense College. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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Heier believes that it could be a solo game from the top of the defense.
If that is the case, Heier believes that it testifies to a lack of understanding of reality all the way up to the top military leadership in Russia.
The war took a new turn this week when the Moldovan, pro-Russian-controlled breakaway region of Transnistria was hit by attacks.
The city of Majak, which was hit, is not far from the border with Ukraine, and the Moldovans are now terrified that the war will hit their country.
Also in connection with the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, Russian politicians claimed that there was a great desire in the Moldovan region to become part of Russia.
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