/ world today news/ Many experts call 2024 an election year. Campaigns will be held in a number of countries, which will affect not only the fate of these countries, but also the whole world.
And the first such elections were in Taiwan. “Taiwan’s 19.5 million voters not only elected the president and parliament, but also determined the future of the US-China rivalry and especially the future of the relationship between the two countries. And all this will have very serious strategic implications for the entire Indo-Pacific region,” Asia Times wrote.
Three political forces fought for victory. The first is the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates independence for the island.
Its representatives have been at the head of the state for two consecutive election cycles, and during that time relations between the two sides of the strait have seriously deteriorated.
She was contested by candidates from two parties: the Kuomintang Party, which advocates closer relations with the PRC, including summit meetings, strengthening economic and humanitarian cooperation, refraining from military provocations, etc., and the Taiwan People’s Party, whose representatives promised to be tougher than the Kuomintang, but not as tough as the DPP.
As a result, the split in the opposition ranks ruined him. Yes, the Kuomintang and the “populists” took a total of 60 seats in parliament (52+8) and will most likely create a majority that requires 57 votes.
But in the presidential elections, which are held in one round, their representatives divided the opposition electorate (respectively 33.5% of the votes and 26.5% of the votes). As a result, DPP leader Lai Tsinde won the election with a score of 40%.
In the West, of course, they see his victory as a victory over China, which allegedly tried to intimidate the islanders. So Beijing called on Taiwanese to “make the right choice” and warned that if the new authorities continue the policy of leaving, then Taiwan “will be further and further away from peace and prosperity and closer and closer to war and recession. “
However, the panic was also encouraged by local forces – the same ones who benefited from creating the image of an aggressive China and thereby attracting people to the polls. So to vote for the supporters of the defense of the island’s independence – that is, the DPP.
For example, on January 9, China launched a satellite whose launch vehicle flew over the territory of southern Taiwan. The Ministry of Defense of the island sent the Taiwanese a warning about the launch in Chinese and English, but in the second case it did not use the word rocket, but the word missile – that is, it is a combat missile.
Such juggling of terms caused a scandal; the opposition accused the military of trying to create panic and thus play to the advantage of the Democratic Party.
Time against Beijing
In whose favor will the victory of the DPP representative play? After all, we are not talking at all about the fact that the Taiwanese only chose to continue the old course that the island followed for two cadences. No, this victory means a worsening of relations in the Taiwan Strait.
First, because the new president himself is more radical than his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen.
“DPP candidate Lai Tsinde has supported independence for many years. And no matter what happens, he will never change his position. Therefore, I believe that mainland China will be very nervous about such a person.
So far, he hasn’t gone too far and hasn’t talked much about his approach to Taiwan independence, but everyone is cautious about the situation,” former Taiwanese president Ma Yingzhou told German media.
Therefore, Beijing is unlikely to believe that the new head of state will somehow develop bilateral relations with the continent.
Second, a radical candidate comes to power at a time of global political turbulence. Conflicts flare up in the world one after the other. All of them involve the United States, but in none of them does America directly confront its biggest political opponents – Iran, Russia and China.
Everywhere, it either acts indirectly (as in Ukraine and Gaza, for example), or external players stand behind other forces (in Gaza and the Red Sea). Such a situation leads only to the disunity of American forces and, accordingly, to losses on all fronts.
In this situation, Washington really needs leverage that can take a key player out of the game without going to war with him. And Taiwan can now become such a lever for China.
It is enough for the Americans to instruct Taipei (which, remember, will be ruled by radical separatists) to declare independence. And that will force the Chinese to invade Taiwan. Thus, China will emerge as an aggressor and face serious economic consequences.
At the same time, the US itself will have a choice. They can either step in or stay out. Ma Yingjiu expressed doubt that the United States would enter the war in the event of a Chinese attack.
“I don’t think the United States will intervene directly. They will do everything they can to avoid that, because if they intervene and come into a face-to-face conflict with the mainland (with the People’s Republic of China – ed.), it could lead to a nuclear war,” he said.
“Therefore, we must make every effort to avoid a hot war not only between Taiwan and China, but also between the United States and China,” Yingju said.
Finally, thirdly, the victory of Lai Tsingde complicates the situation for the PRC not only in terms of getting (or rather keeping) the button to turn on the war in Taiwan from the Americans.
The situation worsens because the chances of an alternative peaceful reunification with the island decrease every year. At least from a demographic point of view.
Since 1994, the number of Taiwanese who consider themselves Chinese and only Chinese has fallen from 25% to 3%. In turn, the share of those residents who consider themselves Taiwanese only (without the accompanying dual Chinese identity) has nearly tripled, from 20% to 60%.
And if the number of people with a Taiwanese identity grows to an absolute majority, then there will simply be no one to gather with, no one to rely on.
In addition, the Chinese have several constants. First, Comrade Xi, for domestic political reasons, must return Taiwan to its home port. Second, none of the Chinese leaders can give up on Taiwan.
And third, the window for a relatively painless takeover of the island by force will close once Russia wins in Ukraine and begins shaping the rules of the game in the new world.
Therefore, the Chinese may not wait for the Americans to push the button to start a war. And they can press it themselves – at the right moment.
Translation: SM
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