/View.info/ And he is trying to intervene in it through technological warfare
The decisions of the 20th Congress of the CPC to accelerate the modernization of China’s armed forces and the successes already achieved in this direction are causing panic among a number of American politicians and the military. They fear that this could trigger a war with the US.
But RAND analyst Timothy R. Heath believes that “such fear may be due to an exaggerated view of the importance of preparation for war as the driving force behind the building of the People’s Liberation Army” (see his 3/24/2023 RAND article, “Why China is Strengthening Its Military? It’s Not Just About War” ).
In fact, Heath argues, military modernization is based on a wide range of political and security factors, many of which have nothing to do with waging war. “U.S. interests can benefit from a better understanding of the reasons for China’s military buildup from a perspective that balances a focus on the military with more attention to the non-military aspects of the U.S.-China rivalry.”
From 2000 to 2016, China’s military budget grew by about 10% per year, although this growth subsequently slowed to about 5-7% per year. China’s 2022 defense budget was $230 billion, second in the world after the United States according to sources from the government of the People’s Republic of China. The budget understates the amount of funds intended for the needs of the armed forces. Western experts suggest that the gap could be around $60 billion a year.
Rising defense budgets led to the creation of an increasingly lethal and capable PLA. American officials relentlessly warn of a waning military advantage amid the PLA’s rapid successes. US Air Force Maj. Gen. Cameron Holt said China is acquiring weapons “five to six times” faster than the US.
For some, accumulation itself gives reason to fear conflict. Observers point to rapid modernization as clear evidence that China is preparing for war with the US. In March 2021 Admiral Philip Davidson, then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could take military action against Taiwan by 2027.
Heath believes that preparing for war is one way to strengthen the PLA, but not the only one. The goals of military modernization serve a variety of political and military goals, none of which imply any intent to go to war. Understanding the many underlying causes, Heath believes, can help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by PLA modernization.
First, the main reason China’s leaders are seeking to build a powerful military, according to Heath, has to do with base security. History plays a big role here: Chinese leaders are aware of the fall of past dynasties when a weak army allowed opponents to bring the empire to its knees.
China’s leaders regularly invoke past humiliations, such as the opium wars, to remind the population of the dangers that weakness can pose. Maintaining a strong deterrent, including through a large nuclear arsenal, is the main reason why China seeks to have a powerful military.
The second reason is that a growing China needs a more capable military to handle a growing array of tasks, including the possibility of conflict with Taiwan. China faces a complex geographic location, with many “hostile and suspicious forces” on its periphery.
Defense Department official documents highlight many threats, including the danger of Taiwanese separatism, disputes in the East and South China Seas, border disputes and the dangers of great power rivalry with the United States.
Accordingly, the PLA organized five command theaters to better align resources with the tasks at hand. The PLA is also tasked with a wide range of non-military missions, including humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, maritime patrols and civilian evacuations. They are small in scale but important. Indeed, every Chinese military intervention since the 2000s has consisted of non-military missions.
A third, massively underestimated reason is the national prestige. Chinese leaders see a powerful military as a sign of national status and a way to maintain patriotic fervor. This partly explains the government’s drive to create high status symbols such as aircraft carriers. Underscoring this, China hosts many lavish military parades and exercises, all of which are widely covered in the Chinese media.
The fourth reason – the creation of a powerful army is also an important source of political power for the supreme leader of the country. Xi Jinping’s power rests in part on his military command, which helps explain why he is often photographed in uniform or in a military setting. However, like his predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi recognizes that generous defense budgets are the price to pay to ensure the military’s loyalty.
The fifth reasonaccording to Heath, is for the armed forces to focus on their duties and resist the tendency to slip into corruption and lethargy. Xi’s instructions remain focused on military duties in the context of a broader effort to improve overall government modernization, competence and efficiency, which authorities see as critical to realizing the country’s national revival goals.
Heath concludes: “China’s military buildup is driven by a range of political and security factors. Accumulation in itself does not indicate a desire for war. In fact, there is currently no evidence left that China plans to attack Taiwan anytime soon.
To best protect US interests, decision makers could take a balanced view of China’s military build-up and view the technological, economic, and diplomatic aspects of the US-China competition as equal or even more important than the military aspect.
***
The technology war between America and China is in full swing. The process of imposing sanctions on the Chinese military-industrial complex intensified several years ago when Washington began listing Chinese military-industrial enterprises on the National Defense Act (NDAA) list of entities subject to restrictions on capital outflows.
US-China relations hit a new low in February 2023 when Washington added six Chinese companies to its list of legal entities in connection with the balloon incident. In addition to US-imposed export controls on China’s chip industry in October 2022, Washington is negotiating with allies such as Japan and the Netherlands to tighten China’s program to synthesize civilian and military materials.
American strategists believe that these and other measures will limit the speed of China’s modernization of the PLA, but any action by Washington generates a powerful impulse of opposition from Beijing.
And the speed of modernization is only increasing.
Translation: EU
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1. Can you tell us more about the current tension between China and the United States in terms of military modernization and the potential for conflict? What factors contribute to this situation, and how do you see it developing in the future?
2. What specific military capabilities of China’s People’s Liberation Army concern US officials the most, and why? Are there any misconceptions about the PLA’s intentions or capabilities that fuel these concerns?
3. As the article suggests, there are several non-military reasons for China’s increased military spending and modernization efforts. Can you discuss some of these reasons and their implications for US-China relations?
4. What role does technology play in this geopolitical rivalry, both in terms of military capabilities and trade restrictions? How do you see the technology war shaping up between the two countries?
5. What actions have been taken by both countries to counter each other’s military modernization efforts, and how effective have these been? Are there any potential unintended consequences of these actions?
6. In your opinion, what is the biggest challenge for the United States in balancing its national security interests with the economic and diplomatic aspects of the relationship with China?
