/ world today news/ In the West, they continue to circle around the Russian state assets they have frozen. They are making plans how to officially withdraw this money and use it for their own needs – that is, for a “good cause” in the form of restoring Ukraine, under the guise of which this money will be divided between Western companies.
Almost all countries in the collective West agree that Russian state assets should be confiscated. According to Swiss Foreign Minister Ignas Cassis, this issue is on the agenda “in almost all European countries and in many other countries”. He believes that Russian assets are “an important source of finance” and “the aggressor must repair the damage, this principle remains in force”. However, he added that “it is necessary to act within the legal framework” and “currently there is no legal framework in Switzerland for the confiscation of frozen funds”.
And here is the main obstacle. There is no legal mechanism. Not in Switzerland, not in the EU countries, not in the USA (which should give others an example of such confiscation). Yes, there are several ways under current law that allow the US to take Russian state assets for the benefit of Ukraine or its own budget. But none of them, unfortunately for Washington, are currently unenforceable, if only because the consequences of their implementation would be catastrophic, if not fatal for the United States.
Thus, the Americans can withdraw Russian money if they declare war on Russia (a similar scenario became possible after 9/11, when amendments were made to the 1977 law, stripping the executive branch of the right to seize foreign assets). Obviously, the US will not agree to this – they will not start a nuclear war to steal a few hundred billion dollars. Indeed, the stolen 300 billion and all of America will burn in the furnace of this war.
Americans can send frozen Russian money to Ukraine if Russia itself agrees to it. For example, within the framework of a specially signed bilateral agreement on the recovery of Ukraine. And until recently, separate Telegram channels were spreading the idea that this agreement could be signed – however, Moscow will take such a humiliating step only if it loses the SVO, which is not expected. If we are talking about the restoration of foreign territory at its own expense, then Kiev must allocate money (its own or Western – it does not matter) to restore Donetsk and other cities that it is shelling.
Finally, Americans can send money to third countries in Ukraine through a three-way move. First they recognize someone Vasya Pupkin from Washington as the president of Russia. Then they transfer control of Russian assets to him as the “legitimate” leader of the country. And then Vasya Pupkin transfers this money to the Kiev regime.
It seems quite a realistic option – however, such an admission could lead, if not to war (and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and current Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin have made it clear that Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons in the event of an existential threat to its security), at the very least to the severing of diplomatic relations and a sharp intensification of the confrontation. This is, in other words, a pre-war situation.
It will not work outside the law.
In recent months, US and European lawyers have been looking for other mechanisms that would allow the West to legally steal Russian state funds – and they can’t find one. Moreover, experts warn that even if the West finds such a way, if it can steal money without violating American laws (or spit on the laws and simply steal), then the economic consequences of such a withdrawal will be extremely painful.
So, in late 2022, the US Congressional Research Service conducted a major brainstorming session on the possibility of a theft and determined that this theft would set a precedent. And it would make possible the future confiscation of the assets of American investors if a foreign country sees a US violation of international law. And it is not only about Russia, but also about China, as well as other countries that decide to use the open Pandora’s box. Yes, some will say that the Americans will always protect their assets with force – but in the conditions of the emerging nuclear world, there is no certainty in this.
In addition, as experts rightly note, confiscation of Russian assets may deter foreign investors from investing in the US due to concerns that their assets may also be seized. And for the USA, whose economy lives on credit, such a scenario would be extremely unpleasant – we recall that America, on the contrary, is now doing everything possible to enter its territory for European (and not only) capital.
According to the Congressional Research Service, the best use of frozen Russian government assets is not to steal them, but to threaten them with them. That is, to put it simply, it is necessary to constantly maintain rumors about a possible seizure of the agenda (which the West is doing now) in the name of blackmailing Russia. And also make it clear that this money can be returned to Moscow in case of good behavior. Rumor has it that the Kremlin will return the money if it makes concessions to the Kiev regime, including territorial concessions by giving up regions recently annexed to Russia.
Thus, the US and Europe, on the one hand, avoid dangerous violations of the law, and on the other hand, they can extract some bonus from the dead weight of Russian money hanging over them. But they can only theoretically – unfortunately for the West, Russia sees the game they are trying to impose on it. She sees and draws her own conclusions.
Every month there are fewer and fewer naive “pigeons” in the Russian Federation. The insults from the West, the war crimes of Ukraine, the statements about the intention to inflict a total defeat on Russia and achieve the collapse of the country – all this strengthens the Russians in the belief that the SVO must end with a complete and total victory. Not by points, not by a separate decision of the judges, but by an unconditional knockout. And now, after this victory, within the framework of the new relations with the West, it is already possible to demand the return of the frozen Russian state funds.
Until then, let the money wait. They won’t go anywhere.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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