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“The West must first acknowledge the fact that for 20 years we have been waging a useless war. The advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a substantial defeat. It is not a positive factor either militarily or politically ”. Stefano Silvestri, analyst, former president of the Institute of International Affairs and consultant to the Presidency of the Council under various governments, discusses with Huffpost the Taliban offensive in the territories that the troops of NATO countries have left. In a few days the Taliban have conquered a dozen provincial capitals and, if things do not change, they will arrive in Kabul within a month. Was such an advance foreseeable? “Since the negotiations had failed – Silvestri replies – it was clear that they would have aimed at a pure and simple reconquest” which could also have consequences for the West. Although, the analyst emphasizes, not immediately. What, however, must immediately appear evident, he states clearly, is that “NATO has been humiliated, because it has suffered the American decisions (the US has started the gradual withdrawal already with the Obama administration, ed) counting very little. This should make us reflect on the limits of the American guarantee, especially in certain areas ”.
The Taliban are conquering, one after another, various areas of Afghanistan. After the beginning of the withdrawal of the Western troops, was such an advance foreseeable?
Some had foreseen it. But it was already evident when it was clear that the negotiations would fail: the Taliban were aiming, aiming, at a pure and simple reconquest. To take as many territories as possible. How achievable this goal was depended on the ability of the Afghan armed forces to counter it. But today we can say that those forces are not adequately trained and armed, that they have a weak political direction and therefore do not identify themselves with a specific cause. Army troops are afraid not only for themselves but also for their families. In such a framework, it is inevitable that there will be defections and that the Taliban are the main force on the ground. Moreover, they are also allied with crime and it is no coincidence that they are aiming for areas rich in opium.
According to the international press, during the negotiations that are underway in Doha, the delegation of the Afghan government has offered the Taliban an agreement to share power. Do you think it is a viable path?
It seems to me one of the many hypotheses that will arise in these hours. The point is that the Taliban have no intention of negotiating. Things could only take another direction if they changed their minds.
What consequences could the Taliban’s reconquest of a large area of the country have for the West, and in particular for Europe?
I don’t see, frankly, any immediate risks. The West must first acknowledge the fact that for 20 years we have been waging a useless war. The advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a substantial defeat. It is not a positive factor either militarily or politically. I believe that Afghanistan will remain a divided country, because it is unlikely that the Taliban will have the strength to go beyond Kabul, in the northern part, in the hands of the warlords.
Could there be a resurgence of terrorism?
The greatest risk, for us but also for the Taliban themselves, is that they will start offering protection to terrorist groups again. We recall that the reason why we intervened in Afghanistan, immediately after the attack on the Twin Towers of 11 September 2001. If they were to guarantee protection to the terrorists, at that point, the West will only have to intervene. Perhaps it would not lead to a new war, but certainly to punitive expeditions. And for this reason, even the Taliban themselves should be cautious in any new contacts with terrorists.
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The advance seems very fast. Is it unstoppable?
Certainly the troops of the Afghan government are not enough. We need the contribution of Western forces, but they are leaving.
There are already many displaced people, without a roof, food and water, who are trying to cross borders and who could make their way to Europe. Will what happened with Syria be repeated?
I don’t think Syria’s numbers will ever be reached, but we certainly need to be ready to welcome at least some of those who will arrive. And above all we must act, out of decency, to bring the Afghan civilians who collaborated with us and who are now in danger to Europe.
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Ettore Sequi, secretary general of the foreign minister, said that Italy is moving in this direction and that 228 Afghans who have collaborated with our country have already arrived here with their families. Spain is also carrying out a similar operation. Sequi today stated that Italy will not accept violent takeovers. But what can Rome do concretely with respect to this situation?
It can certainly let us know what our choices are, what is the red line that for us cannot be crossed. But other forces are needed for a concrete reaction. Of the USA, for example, but not only. Yet the US has begun the withdrawal and NATO has been humiliated because it has undergone this withdrawal, showing that it matters very little. Choices like this, which have obviously influenced other countries, weaken alliances. And they should make both NATO and the European Union reflect on the limits of the US guarantee, especially in some areas. If we do not want to continue with these problems we must learn to rely more on our strength. And I am referring to both the Atlantic alliance and the EU.
Sequi also said that many things have changed in the Asian country in these twenty years, from the role of women to the strengthening of institutions. You defined these changes as irreversible, is that so in your opinion?
I have some doubts about irreversibility. Clearly, the Afghans have taken several steps forward because they have made contact with the rest of the world. And it is also clear that the Taliban want to bring them back, to tribal logic, to Islamic fanaticism. Society has changed, of course, but we have to see to what extent it will have the strength to oppose the Taliban. Surely civilians will now be less willing to believe everything the Taliban say, but I don’t know to what extent they can have the tools to create an alternative model.
The German foreign minister said this morning that if the Taliban does not stop, Afghanistan will no longer receive a cent of development aid. Can you achieve anything with this threat?
It is one of the attempts to negotiate. It is like saying: “Look, if you continue to act in this way, not receiving the funds can be a limitation for you too”. Will it have any effect? I hope this will be enough, but I have some doubts.
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TALIBAN HANDOUT via via REUTERS
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