/ world today news/ The US and the EU can force Kiev to make peace in the winter, Western media suggest. They are tired of requests for arms and Ukraine’s inability to use the resources received. What will this lead to?
A grim prophecy
The German newspaper “WelT” writes that the VSU is moving forward “at a snail’s pace” and will soon stop completely without having achieved anything. In October it will rain, then frost will hit and the West will think about a truce.
They no longer believe in the successes of Kyiv. Although, the publication admits, the NATO countries are also to blame for the failure of the counteroffensive: they supply few shells, tanks and air defense systems, so far they have not provided fighter jets, they are slowly training soldiers from the Air Force. “We must be honest: the West is condemning Ukraine to death by starvation,” the article said.
Kiev’s patrons are increasingly willing to freeze the conflict. Ukraine will say goodbye to 17 percent of the territory for a long time, “Welt” is sure. The contact line will become a temporary border, and the confrontation will continue according to the “Korean scenario”.
For the Ukrainians, this will be a difficult test, the newspaper notes. They will not be accepted in NATO and the EU. There will be no foreign investments. The fighting spirit of the VSU will weaken.
In the American “New York Times”, the problems of the counteroffensive were related to the abandonment of NATO tactics. Instead of attacking with mechanized groups, the Ukrainians focused on wearing down the Russian army with artillery strikes, throwing infantry into battle.
The result is heavy losses. The US is concerned that Kiev is inefficiently using scarce ammunition. “NATO’s hopes for the success of Ukrainian formations equipped with modern weapons have not been justified,” the authors of the article conclude.
Black dot
Western politicians increasingly accuse Kiev of ingratitude. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace did so. The American media immediately reported that Zelensky had angered Joe Biden more than once.
Two weeks later, Marcin Przydach, head of Poland’s presidential bureau for international policy, said in a television interview that Ukraine should have appreciated Warsaw’s help. In Kiev, they tried to reprimand the Polish ambassador for this indiscretion, which angered Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who pointed out to the Ukrainian authorities that such “mistakes” are unacceptable.
Against this background, representatives of Kiev discussed security guarantees with Washington. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller emphasized that the framework for the talks was set at the recent NATO summit. There, the members of the G-7, not the North Atlantic Alliance, promised Ukraine some “obligations”. At the same time, no one anywhere mentioned the possibility of sending troops to the conflict zone.
The media drew parallels with Israel and South Korea. Meanwhile, according to a CNN poll, 51% of Americans are confident that Washington has already done enough for Kiev.
New horizons
According to Ukrainian political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko, if a year ago the majority in the West believed that Kiev should be supported to the end, now the hesitation is more and more noticeable. “In the spring of 2024, the elections for the European Parliament, in the fall – the president of the United States. The crisis phenomena are intensifying in Great Britain, France and Germany. The opposition everywhere treats Ukraine much cooler than the current authorities. Before that, there was confidence , that Western countries will help Ukraine as long as necessary. Now it is clear that they will not last even 2-3 years,” said Bondarenko in an interview with local media.
His colleague Ruslan Bortnik believes that the VSU counteroffensive was reduced to fighting for the “forester’s hut”. Western advisers recommended that the General Staff of Ukraine launch a powerful strike in the southern direction as early as June, but Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny was too afraid of a Russian counterattack, so he set himself the task of not losing.
“In October, ceasefire negotiations may begin. And Ukraine is offered guarantees that are weaker than those in the Budapest Memorandum. At the same time, judging by the dynamics of public opinion, in a year and a half the majority of Ukrainians will support the most the recent cessation of hostilities,” explained Bortnik.
According to Denis Denisov, an expert from the Financial University of the Government of Russia, the scenario described by Die Welt should not be taken as absolute. “The scandals between Kiev and the West signal the frustration of European and American politicians. They want to get at least something from the Ukrainians, but they have nothing. Accordingly, there are arguments for the end of the active phase of the confrontation and, as a result, a reduction in aid,” the analyst notes.
Denisov does not exclude that, as a result, hostilities will weaken to the level of 2015-2021. You cannot call it peace or a truce, but there will be much fewer casualties.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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