I sin daily update British intelligence claims that Russia has lost momentum as a result of the limited progress it has made since the start of the war.
They also claim that the Russians have lost a third of the invading forces, as well as large parts of the military equipment.
Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen tells Dagbladet that it is natural that the progress of Russian forces stops.
This is the problem
– The Russians lack the ability to continue the offensive. It seems like that’s what they’re doing in the Donbas too. Further west, they are in the process of digging defensive positions. They seem to be gearing up to retain territories, and defend them, says Karlsen and continues:
– It indicates that we are entering a long-term phase, where it may not move as much, but that the parties stay on the front that is, says Karlsen, who does not want to speculate on specific figures regarding dead soldiers.
ERROR: Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen gives an update on the war in Ukraine 16.05.2022 sea view
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When asked if he thinks the lack of progress can lead to the Russians working even harder, he answers:
– The problem is that they do not have much more to work harder with. Neither ground forces nor air forces. Then the battles turn into static positions and less progress.
Ukrainian authorities claims to have received about 32,000 inquiries from relatives, requesting information about Russian soldiers they have lost contact with.
Many of them are said to have been abandoned on the Ukrainian battlefields or otherwise kept hidden.
Lieutenant Colonel Karlsen fears that the summer may be bloody in the areas around the Donbas.
– The Ukrainians still have an ambition to go on the counterattack when they bring in tanks, artillery and other heavy equipment from the West, but it takes time. They will practice using it, and put the departments together
– It can be a long, bloody and hot summer in the Donbas and other parts of Ukraine, he continues.
UKRAINE: A video shared on Telegram by the adviser to Ukraine’s foreign minister, apparently showing Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian tank with a US javelin missile. Video: Dagbladet TV / Telegram @Pravda_Gerashchenko sea view
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– Everyone was surprised
Karlsen, like several other experts, is very surprised at how Russian forces have behaved during the war. He calls what Russia has achieved in Ukraine a “fadese”.
– We have been surprised at how bad they are militarily. They started the war with an offensive plan to take the whole of eastern Ukraine with light forces, because they thought Ukraine would give up. The way they started the war was a military fad, he believes.
