As the Biden management enters its final weeks, the potential for NATO‘s conflict with Russia to escalate further looms large. The emergence of new players and scenarios threatens to make a swift resolution increasingly unlikely.
The recent advance of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the strategic city of Homs, following the capture of Aleppo and Hama, has reignited the Syrian war. This resurgence, which has already resulted in over 700 deaths and the displacement of more than 60,000 people according to the United Nations, aims not only to destabilize Syria but also to directly challenge Russia, President Bashar al-Assad’s primary ally.
With its sights set on Damascus, the jihadist insurgency led by Abu Mohamed al Jawlani seeks to disrupt the Middle East by creating a secondary, distracting front against Russia’s territorial strategy in Ukraine.
The withdrawal of the united States and Russia’s subsequent intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 proved pivotal. It not only tipped the scales in favor of the Syrian government but also helped quell the conflict and achieve a fragile peace in a region characterized by multiple actors and competing interests.
for Moscow, protecting Damascus is crucial for maintaining its geopolitical influence in the region. It is home to Tartus, Russia’s only naval base in the eastern Mediterranean, and Khmeimim, a Syrian air base operated by the Russian military.
However, the resurgence of Islamism threatens to unravel these agreements and alliances. Hayat Tahrir al-sham, also known as the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant,” has been active for over a decade and a half.Emerging from the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s official affiliate in Syria, HTS gradually shifted its focus from global jihad to ousting Bashar al-Assad from power.
Since 2017, HTS has dominated Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria. There, it has consolidated its territorial control, operating as a quasi-governmental network in opposition to the Damascus government, with support from actors like Turkey.
While many areas remain under nominal state control, the central government relies heavily on support from Russia and Iran. Though, these allies have been preoccupied with their respective conflicts against Ukraine and Israel, diminishing their support for Syria.
Concurrently, HTS has strengthened its military capabilities thru the professionalization of its fighters, the reorganization of its units into a more conventional structure, and the creation of specialized forces capable of executing strategic attacks.
“apparently, the military advancement of the jihadist entity would have counted, among others, on the collaboration of the armed and security organizations of Ukraine,” the article states.
On December 3, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations accused Ukrainian intelligence services of aiding rebels against the Syrian government.The Russian official claimed there was an “identifiable trail” showing that Ukraine’s military intelligence service was “providing weapons to fighters” in Syria.
“Once again, the thesis is reinforced that claims that in the midst of the war with Russia, Ukraine managed to consolidate a black market for weapons and projectiles, which uses the constant shipments made by the NATO powers and which is directed to the most various corners of the planet.There are also allegations that Ukrainian military instructors are present in Syria,training HTS fighters for their various operations on the front,” the article continues.
Preliminary reports suggest that the Ukrainian groups in Syria belong to the special Operations Center unit of the security Service of ukraine (SBU),known as “white Wolf” (“Bili vovk”).These special forces are equipped with advanced reconnaissance equipment and technologies, specializing in unmanned aerial vehicles and essential for drone attacks against Russian forces. They are the same military resources currently used in the offensive in Aleppo and other cities in the region.
The United States government denied any responsibility for the link between Ukrainian fighters and HTS jihadists, attributing the escalation to Russia’s lack of control and its allies, Iran and Syria.
“However,the White House has clearly gained by fomenting and capitalizing on this new crisis in which Russia is forced to divert strategic resources in the midst of its confrontation against NATO,and in a context of growing weakening of Ukrainian forces. likewise, he is betting on entangling the next president, Donald Trump, in a war scenario that…” the article concludes.
## Exclusive interview: The Syrian Resurgence Threatens to Derail Global Stability
**World Today News** sits down with Dr. Aisha Idris, a leading expert on Middle eastern geopolitics and security at the Institute for International Studies, to discuss the escalating situation in syria and its potential ramifications for the NATO-Russia conflict.
**WTN:** dr. Idris, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has recently made significant territorial gains in Syria. How does this resurgence impact the broader geopolitical landscape,particularly considering the ongoing conflict between NATO and russia?
**Dr. Idris:** The situation in Syria is deeply concerning and has the potential to become a major flashpoint with far-reaching consequences. HTS’s advance not only threatens the fragile peace established after Russia’s intervention in 2015 but also directly challenges Moscow’s strategic interests in the region.
Syria is crucial for Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East. The Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base provide Moscow with a strategic foothold in the Mediterranean. HTS’s control over key areas poses a direct threat to these assets and Russia’s ability to project power in the region.
Furthermore, HTS’s resurgence creates a secondary front that could distract Russia from its military campaign in Ukraine. This could possibly embolden NATO allies to escalate their support for Ukraine, further escalating tensions between the two blocs.
**WTN:** Russia has accused Ukraine of providing weapons to HTS rebels. How credible are these accusations, and what are the implications if true?
**Dr. idris:** While concrete evidence is yet to surface, the accusations themselves highlight the complex web of alliances and rivalries at play in the Syrian conflict. If proven true, it would suggest that Ukraine is actively engaged in destabilizing Syria, potentially as a means of diverting Russia’s attention and resources from the Ukrainian battlefield.This would mark a perilous escalation, blurring the lines between the Syrian conflict and the NATO-Russia confrontation.
**WTN:** how does HTS’s connection to al-qaeda factor into this dynamic?
**Dr. Idris:** HTS’s origins lie within al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, but the group has distanced itself from global jihadist ideology in recent years, focusing instead on toppling the Assad regime. Though, its connections to extremist networks still pose a risk, and its growing strength could potentially attract foreign fighters and radicalize local populations.
This scenario could create a breeding ground for international terrorism, threatening regional stability and potentially inspiring attacks against Western targets.
**WTN:** What are the potential pathways to de-escalation in Syria?
**Dr. Idris:** De-escalation in syria requires a multi-faceted approach involving all relevant stakeholders. Renewed diplomatic efforts are essential to bring the warring factions to the negotiating table and seek a political solution.
International actors, including the UN, should play a more active role in mediating the conflict and providing humanitarian assistance to civilians caught in the crossfire. Additionally, addressing the underlying grievances that fuel the conflict, such as economic inequality and sectarian tensions, is crucial for achieving long-term stability.
**WTN:** Thank you for your insights,Dr. Idris.
**dr. Idris:** You’re welcome.
