Five months after Russia invaded Ukraine, fighting in the country is taking place mainly in two areas: in Donetsk oblast in Donbas, and Kherson oblast, north of the Crimean peninsula.
British military intelligence described Monday a dilemma for the Russian army leadership: either to continue to strengthen the offensive in the east, or to strengthen the defensive positions in the west.
This is Putin’s pretext
This poses a significant strategic problem for the Russians, as they must prioritize already thinned forces between the two areas. Holding on to the West also presents major logistical challenges, according to Norwegian military experts.
– It’s a classic supply line problem. And they are already weakened, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general and former defense chief, to Dagbladet.
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– Close to zero
The Ukrainians have in recent weeks conducted a major counter-offensive in the Kherson region, which has largely been in Russian hands since early in the war. Ukrainian authorities have promised that the area will be recaptured by September.
Dalhaug says the Russians are generally struggling with progress in Ukraine.
FORMER DEFENSE STOP: Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general and former defense stop. Photo: Private
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– The offensive capability of the Russian forces in Donbas is close to zero. Since they took Luhansk [i begynnelsen av juli]little has changed in the last two or three weeks, says the former top defender.
He explains that the Russians’ lack of suitable forces is a key factor.
– We saw during the battles in Lysytsjansk and Sievjerodonetsk that they lack trained infantry that can enter densely built-up areas. They gained primarily through the unrestrained use of artillery; they could stand and shoot all the time.
New weapons
The Ukrainians, for their part, have gained an advantage through the supply of new Western weapons, such as the high-tech, long-range US missile system HIMARS.
Liza (4) killed in the missile attack
– Then the Russians must use their own artillery in a new way; they cannot stand still and build up ammunition in one place. As a result, they get shot very much less, and their fighting ability is significantly weakened, explains the retired lieutenant general.
Dalhaug says that the Ukrainians’ strategy is to keep the Russians in the Kherson area, where they are thus exposed to strong counterattacks.
– Can the Ukrainians take Kherson back?
THE FRONT LINES: This is how the front lines in the Ukraine war are on Monday, according to British military intelligence. Graphics: Defense Intelligence
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– It is a time-consuming operation. We have seen Ukrainian progress on the ground, and they have almost destroyed the bridges over the Dnipro, which the Russians use to get supplies west of Kherson. Many believe the Ukrainians have surrounded fairly large Russian forces here.
Very wide
Kherson city is located west of the Dnipro, which is very wide in places. This creates major challenges for the Russian forces, as supply lines are stretched far – a classic problem for an invading force, as both Napoleon and Hitler experienced during their respective invasions of Russia and the Soviet Union.
– They have their backs to the Dnipro, and are very dependent on two bridges – it has not worked very well, as the Ukrainians have reduced the effect of their use quite a lot. There have been rumors that the Russians want to build a pontoon bridge [flytende bru] – but the river is very wide, emphasizes Dalhaug.
UKRAINIAN ADVANTAGE: The US HIMARS missile system creates problems for Russian artillery on the ground in Ukraine. Photo: Romeo Ranoco / Reuters / NTB
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All this means that the Russian army leadership has to withdraw forces from the Donbas to strengthen Kherson.
– The question is whether it was the right priority to send such large forces to Donbas, says the former defense chief.
Dalhaug believes that Kherson is much more strategically important than Donbas, but that the former has gone under the radar.
– There are many feelings associated with Donbas; After all, Putin promised the so-called people’s republics to be liberated, and then they have hung up on this, without thinking about what is wise. Now it backfires on them, as they have thinned their forces too much.
– I have no words
– Hardly any big changes
Geir Hågen Karlsen, lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believes that the Russians seem to prioritize Donbas.
– They have also done what is necessary to maintain the position around Kherson – the same with outside Kharkiv, he tells Dagbladet – but emphasizes:
– As of now, neither party has enough forces to make major changes in the front line likely in the short term.
– Do we now have the job war that has been feared?
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– It has really been a relatively stagnant war of attrition since the Russians withdrew from Kyiv and the northern areas – they have made little progress since they took Sievjerodonetsk and Lysytjansk.
– Is there any realism in the fact that the Ukrainians can take back Kherson, as they have promised?
– It joins the series of statements from both sides that we have to take with a pinch of salt. You have to look at the strength ratio and the map, and assess what is realistically possible. I wouldn’t say it’s unrealistic, but it remains to actually do it.
– No factor X
– Is there any factor X that can swing the war decisively in one direction or the other?
NOT COOPERATING: Ukrainian protesters show their displeasure with the Russian occupiers in Kherson city in early March. Photo: Oleksandr Chorny / AP / NTB
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– There is none: there is no new weapon system that suddenly changes things dramatically, says the lieutenant colonel and elaborates:
– This is a war of attrition that goes slowly back and forth. Ukraine has western arms and industry behind it, while the Russians have large arms stockpiles. There are many indications that these weapons are in very poor condition, and they also have problems recruiting new people. The Russians should initially be superior, but it is uncertain whether they will be able to do so for a long time.
– Do the Russians have a problem with the supply lines in the Kherson area?
– It is a long way from Russia to Kherson – and now the Ukrainians have started firing artillery at ammunition depots and bridges in the area, in addition to being attacked in rear areas by saboteurs and special forces. This means that the forces there are exposed.
– What is the Russians’ most important goal? Is it Donbas or Kherson?
Take over if Putin dies
– It is quite obvious that the Russians must prioritize fulfilling what they have done and said – it is Donbas they prioritize. These are areas they have partially held since 2014, and it is also what is politically salable to do, to ensure internal support, explains Karlsen and continues:
– Internally in Russia, it is important to “liberate” Luhansk and Donetsk, which they have already recognized as independent republics – then they have to do that too, and thus ensure internal support.
Third Republic
The lieutenant colonel believes the Russians want to create a third republic in Kherson and the rest of the area north of the Crimean peninsula, including Zaporizhzhya.
– It is a process they have had going on for a couple of months, with political control, the introduction of roubles, the installation of a new administration and the Russian curriculum in the schools. It will be a complete sham process, but it has been going on for a long time.
STRATEGIC: The Russians depend on the Antonivskyj bridge over the Dnipro in Kherson Photo: Oleksandr Ermochenko / Reuters / NTB
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– But the resistance in the population has been great.
– The Russians have long experience of suppressing the population in areas – just look at Chechnya.
– Can the Russians eventually take Odesa?
– It is completely unlikely at the present time. It is difficult to say what will happen in many months, but now it is the Ukrainians who are making progress there. And it is very far from Kherson to Odesa.
Older missiles
Karlsen reminds us that the Russians can fire missiles at any target. Last week attack they ended up in Odesashortly after an agreement on grain export had been concluded between the parties.
LIEUTENANT COLONEL: Geir Hågen Karlsen, lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Knut Støvne / The Armed Forces / NTB
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– But they have to prioritize, as they have now used up many of their long-range missiles. They have now started using older missiles with poorer precision, says the lieutenant colonel.
During the Second World War, the Soviets were able to keep the production of war materials going because the civilian population, for the most part women, was used as labor in the factories. This is no longer the case, explains Karlsen.
– The production lines cannot increase the pace without further ado. Today’s missiles are very advanced, and there are problems in obtaining components for them. Captured Russian equipment has been found to be full of Western electronics.
– Motivational problems
As earlier in the war, there is a big difference in the motivation on the two sides, explains the lieutenant colonel.
– Embarrassing and unfortunate
– The Ukrainians are fighting for their own freedom. The Russians, on the other hand, have great difficulty in maintaining motivation. The authorities are also afraid to call in forces, he says and points out that an overwhelming majority of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enlisted personnel.
– What is most important for Ukraine militarily now?
– They need Western weapons and ammunition, and material support. Especially access to ammunition, of which large quantities are consumed all the time, is critically important, says Karlsen and continues:
– There is no lack of manpower, but they lack a bit of expertise – when it comes to using new equipment and building new departments. They must train people to maintain the equipment, and at the top they must have bosses and managers who can use it.
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