There is little indication that there will be a ceasefire in Ukraine this winter.
At the same time, several experts believe that Russia appears to have dwindling ammunition stockpiles.
It could be good news for the Ukrainian forces, says intelligence expert Tom Røseth, who believes it is important for the Ukrainian forces to use the weather effectively.
No Christmas peace sign
– Given what we see in the air and on the ground, it’s hard to conclude that the war will end by the end of the year, US Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday.
Earlier that day, the Kremlin also said a “Christmas truce” was out of the question, according to the Reuters news agency.
A day earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said peace talks would be off the table until Ukraine understood the “reality”.
– NATO is not doing enough
– These realities are that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums in these territories. Without taking these realities into account, no progress is possible, Peskov said.
With that, it seems Russia’s demand for peace talks is that they can keep the four Ukrainian regions they illegally annexed in September.
– The end of the war will be when we regain our land and borders, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with David Lettermanwhich was recorded in October.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian authorities have always been adamant that it is out of the question to let go of Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
– Then the war is over
– The space for action for Ukraine is now
There is therefore little that initially points in the direction of peace in Ukraine. But despite the steep fronts, there are elements that could indicate that these winter months could be very important for Ukraine’s progress in the conflict.
– The space for action for Ukraine is now. Now it is important that they go forward, use the capability they have beyond the front line and not let the Russians rest. They have more capabilities than the Russians, they proved it.
That’s what Tom Røseth, head of intelligence at the Staff School, tells Dagbladet.
In the past, US analysts have pointed out that there could be a setback to the war during the winter, Røseth said, but a statement from John Kirby on Wednesday could indicate that the situation has now reversed.
– We have no expectations that the games will stop in the coming winter months, Kirby said according to Reuters.
RØSETH: The head of intelligence at the Staff School, Tom Røseth, believes that winter could be important for the Ukrainian forces. Photo: The Norwegian Armed Forces
sea View
– Disassemble the breast pumps
In a NBC article since December 13, experts point to another element that could become decisive in the conflict: Russia’s apparently dwindling stockpiles of artillery.
– In its search for munitions, Russia is now using half-century-old munitions and dismantling breast pumps and kitchen appliances to gain access to the microchips they need for their tanks and precision-guided weapons, writes NBC.
The article also claims that Ukraine, for its part, is completely dependent on the support of Western allies to continue its war.
Røseth agrees with this.
– Now the doors are narrow for arms manufacturers. There is a battle of resistance in ammunition and weapon supplies. Ukraine’s success depends on continued arms deliveries from the West, says intelligence teacher Røseth.
– In favor of Russia
– How big American stockpiles of 155 mm artillery shells are and how much artillery is coming out of Nammo – these are parts of the answer to how the war will go, says the principal.
He points out that while Russia previously carpet-bombed areas like Donbass and Luhansk, it has now severely slowed down the use of artillery.
– Indicates a more conscious use. They probably don’t run on empty, but they have to adjust usage to production level, says Røseth.
Warnings: – You have to be very careful
It is also clear that Ukraine depends on maintaining the pace of the war and not giving Russia time to catch up.
Several experts have also warned about this in the past. In early December, the British Foreign Secretary urged James Cleverly for prudence in peace talks.
– We must be careful that a pause can be used by Russia to ensure that the next phase of the war is more effective than the current one, Cleverly said then.
– The more time passes, the more it is in Russia’s favor, unless they can be exhausted on the side of weapons production.
