After almost a year of war in Ukraine, allied ammunition stocks have been greatly reduced. Now the West must step up arms production, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a meeting of defense ministers on Wednesday.
– Ammunition consumption in this war, which must be considered a major war, is enormously higher than what we have seen in the past, such as in Afghanistan or Iraq, says Geir Hågen Karlsen, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
GOING EMPTY: Ukraine uses far more ammunition than the West is able to produce. One of the biggest shortages is 155 millimeter shells, artillery fire. The photo was taken in Donbass last summer and shows a French “CAESAR” howitzer being fired by Ukrainian forces. Photo: ARIS MESSINIS / AFP / NTB
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He says that the production of several types of ammunition was low before the war broke out, and that Western donations to Ukraine have depleted the weapons stockpiles of several countries.
– Ammunition stocks in many NATO countries were very low even before the war. Therefore, there is a great need to rebuild the warehouses again.
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Must increase production
NATO is now planning to increase its targets for weapons storage and several processes are underway to secure ammunition for the battlefield, according to NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.
– It is clear that we are in a logistics race. Key capabilities such as ammunition, fuel and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can take the initiative on the battlefield. Speed will save lives.
– Industrial war
Hågen Karlsen believes that the West and Russia are now in a race to see who can produce the most.
ARMS RACE: Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College believes that the West and Russia are now in an industrial war. Photo: Knut Støvne / The Armed Forces
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– In reality, we are in an industrial war. The party that manages to produce enough weapons, and especially ammunition, will succeed in the end. It can be compared to the Second World War, where the industrial potential of the Allies finally overwhelmed Germany.
40,000 shells a month
Arms supplies worth tens of billions have flooded into Ukraine since the war broke out nearly a year ago, among them hundreds of thousands of artillery shells. Norway donated further 10,000 grenades in January.
The grenades are of the 155 millimeter type and are used in several types of artillery fire. But according to Michal Strnad, owner of Czechoslovak Group AS, one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers, Ukraine uses up to 40,000 such grenades every month.
Europe produces around 300,000 such artillery shells a year.
– European production capacity is grossly insufficient. Even if the war were to stop overnight, Europe would need up to 15 years to supply its stockpiles at current production rates, Strnad told The Wall Street Journal.
40,000 A MONTH: The consumption of artillery shells is very high, Ukraine is estimated to fire about 40,000 such shells every month. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/NTB
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Requires huge investments
During the meeting of defense ministers in NATO on Wednesday, Jens Stoltenberg said that weapons production is increasing, but that the waiting time has increased from 12 to 28 months for heavy caliber ammunition.
Geir Hågen Karlsen from the University of Defense explains that such an increase in production requires large resources.
– When the need becomes so great, it is not enough to just increase production on the lines you have, you have to create completely new production lines. It requires large contracts and investments.
Ammunition for 2.6 billion
Hågen Karlsen points to the government’s order for until DKK 2.6 billion from the Norwegian company Nammo, as an example of such an investment.
Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram tells Dagbladet that the investment in Nammo is an important part of Norwegian preparedness.
– The war in Ukraine has created a great need for ammunition, and Norwegian Nammo plays a significant role for the NATO countries and in Western ammunition production, he writes in an email.
Gram explains that the order has accelerated the replenishment of Norwegian weapons stockpiles.
– Last year the government accelerated an order for artillery ammunition from Nammo for approximately NOK 400-450 million. This means that we can fill up the ammunition stocks faster than originally planned.
The Minister of Defense says that such an investment helps to secure production.
– This gives Nammo opportunities to increase production capacity and guarantees for ordering raw materials for production.
He explains that the defense industry is working on measures.
– Both replenishing our own emergency stockpiles and increasing the production capacity of defense material and ammunition in NATO countries are important for both Norway and our allies in the serious security policy situation we are in. The Ministry of Defense is in close contact with the defense industry about this, and many suppliers is working on measures to increase production capacity, writes Gram.
– Russia is struggling
Geir Hågen Karlsen says that the lack of ammunition does not only affect Ukraine and the West. One of the reasons is extensive sanctions from Western governments:
– Russia is struggling to produce advanced ammunition. Many of their weapon systems are full of western components and electronics, while many of their industrial machines are made in the west and require parts and maintenance. This has been hit hard by Western sanctions.
Karlsen believes that Russia can draw inspiration from one of its largest remaining trading partners, Iran.
– Iran is a major arms producer and an important partner for Russia during this war. Their weapons are not the most advanced, but they have been producing them under Western sanctions for decades, using their own technology. I think that is being copied on a large scale by the Russians to try to ease the consequences of the sanctions.
