The war in Ukraine: – Waiting for the frost

After Ukraine’s major offensive in the Kherson region – and the recapture of the city of the same name in early November – the fronts in Ukraine largely came to a standstill.

In addition to the fierce fighting around the city of Bakhmut, the front lines are marked by so-called war of position. Russian forces have recently dug in trenches along the approximately 1,000 kilometer long front line.

However, that can change when the cold really sets in, head intelligence officer at the Staff School, Tom Røseth, explains to Dagbladet.

– I think there will be Ukrainian counter-offensives against Russian-controlled areas this winter, Røseth tells Dagbladet. She adds:

– Defense Minister (Oleksij Reznikov, journ.anm) in Ukraine said today that he will wait until the frost subsides before there are major counter-offensives. It coincides with my analysis and that of others that it is only when there is ice on the ground that it becomes easy to carry out large offensives.

According to the Meteorological Institute, degrees alternate between several degrees plus and up to eight degrees minus in eastern and southeast Ukraine now.

– Increase in acts of war

Røseth points out that analysts in the US have stressed that there will be a standstill over the winter. He has little faith in this.

– I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think we will see an increase in hostilities this winter, especially with the Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Intelligence expert explains why it is an advantage for Ukrainians to have adequate communications on the ground.

– There is very soft ground in this area. It is very fertile ground. So you have to follow the axes, and if you follow the axes it will be easier to stop, says Røseth about the difficulties of moving to Ukraine now.

– If you intend to carry out offensive military operations – with tracked vehicles such as tanks and artillery – which work very well in frozen terrain, you get much more flexibility and can attack from the side or flanking, says Røseth.

He also explains that the mobility afforded by winter means you can outrun stationary Russian forces and attack from the rear, or simply thunder forward – and then let the rear forces fight off the remaining pockets of Russian forces.

– Exhausted

On Monday morning, British intelligence wrote that Russia is “unlikely” to achieve its current goals with war.

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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the goal of what the Russians call a “special operation” is to protect citizens of Donbass and southeastern Ukraine.

– It’s a pretty clear assessment from the British side that they don’t expect any major offensive by Russian military forces this winter. It’s because they’re exhausted, they’ve been exhausted for a long time, Røseth tells Dagbladet.

The Russian forces that were mobilized this fall have been used defensively, Røseth points out.

– Only led to more opportunities for defense, not more opportunities for offensive operations. They need to rest and regroup, says Røseth, who believes Russia can only launch major operations in late winter or spring 2023.