Ukrainian intelligence claims that after weeks of war in Ukraine, the political elite in Moscow is simmering, and that it is a group with the goal of removing Vladimir Putin from power. Also Kyiv Independent have reported the same.
Intelligence chief Aleksandr Bortnikov is claimed to be Putin’s successor, according to reports.
Bortnikov has been the head of the Russian security service FSB since 2008, and is considered a central part of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.
– You should take this with a pinch of salt, there is also an information conflict, we know very little about what is happening around Putin. In addition to the war. This may be a move to try to spread division in the group around Putin, says Russia researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy, Jakub M. Godzimirski, to Dagbladet.
Sharing trauma
Godzimirski explains that the similarities between Putin and Bortnikov are striking.
Bortnikov has extensive experience from Russian intelligence, and joined the now defunct KGB in 1975. He was stationed in Leningrad – now St. Petersburg – and became acquainted with Putin early in the service.
– They are from the same generation, and have the same traumas – the collapse of the Soviet Union. If Putin had been replaced by Bortnikov, there would have been a cosmetic change, they come from the same circle.
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– But the problem with him – like so many others around Putin – is that they can tell him what he wants to hear and not what he must hear, Godzimirski explains.
The Russia expert points out that the FSB chief has for a number of years been at the top of Russia’s Nezavisimaja Gazeta’s lists of Russia’s 100 most powerful.
Graph of Bortnikov’s position on power list over the last 14 years:
– Many may be dissatisfied
Reports from Ukraine say both that Bortnikov has fallen out of favor with Putin, but also that he is wanted as a replacement.
– Can there be any support in the Ukrainian reports that it is smoldering in the political elite around Putin?
– There are many who may be dissatisfied with Putin now. And there are many Putin can be dissatisfied with. If you look at what has happened, you can say that Putin has been misinformed. Many say he blames the intelligence services. Then Bortnikov is one of the most vulnerable, but this is just speculation, he says.
He points out that people in and around Putin’s circle are largely dependent on the president, and that there are no alternative centers of power.
– I doubt that we will have a revolution in Russian politics, Godzimirski states.
Ukraine: – End within two weeks
Convicted
On Tuesday, opposition leader Alexei Navalny was transferred to a penal colony after being sentenced to nine new years in prison, for large-scale fraud.
– Other similar profiles have chosen to leave Russia for fear of the same fate. The biggest threat to Putin remains a popular uprising at home. If he does not deliver what people expect, there could be a riot, the Russia researcher explains.
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Since the outbreak of the war, there have been a number of demonstrations and protests in Russia against the war.
The battle between television and other information is crucial, Godzimirski points out.
In Russia, it is the TV propaganda that keeps Putin in power. If the TV propaganda collapses, so will the regime, Russia expert Atle Grønn explained to Dagbladet earlier in March.
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