The war in Ukraine turns two years old Russia on the offensive in almost all sectors of the front, while Kiev tries to compensate for the lack of Western weapons by relieving the head of its Army, Valery Zaluzhnia maneuver of uncertain outcome.
If the first anniversary of the war was positive for the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenskithe second comes full of doubts for kyiv, which has decided to bet on “strategic defense” in the face of enemy superiority in men and ammunition.
Russia advances in Donbas
The long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in June, which allowed the Ukrainians to advance mainly in the southern region of Zaporizhiastalled in the summer and paved the way for a new Russian offensive.
Without sparing men or equipment – experts estimate casualties in the tens of thousands – the Russians have managed to advance further in the Donbas during the winter campaign than in the previous eighteen months of fighting.
First they took the strategic town of Marinka (10,000), which is located five kilometers southwest of Donetskcapital of the homonymous popular republic annexed by Moscow. It was his biggest success since taking over. Baymouth in May 2023.
Afterwards, the Russians focused all their efforts on conquering the bastion of Avdivkalocated in one of the most militarized areas of the more than a thousand kilometers of Russian-Ukrainian front.
Withdrawal of Avdivka
At first, kyiv chose to resist the enemy attacks until the end, as it did before in Mariupol and then in Severodonetsk y Lisichansk, but finally had to surrender to the evidence. The city’s defenders were ordered to withdraw.
“It is a very logical and professional decision to save as many Ukrainian lives as possible,” said Zelensky, who estimated that for every Ukrainian soldier who has died in that area of the front, seven Russians have lost their lives.
Zelensky added: “What has Russia achieved? “The exhaustion of her army.”
Be that as it may, the Russian president, Vladimir Putinclaimed victory in several events with a clearly electoral aspect, it is not in vain that he needs successes on the battlefield to legitimize his re-election in the presidential elections in March.
But he was not satisfied with that. Putin called to take advantage of the current initiative to advance towards other Ukrainian strongholds, in clear reference to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but also Vugledar, all in the Donetsk region.
The Russian navy has been weakened
It wasn’t all bad news for Ukraine. The Army, but mainly military intelligence, have managed to deal severe setbacks to the Russian rear, mainly to the Navy.
With missiles and naval and aerial drones of its own manufacture, Ukraine has managed to destroy a third of the war’s ships since the beginning of the war. Black Sea Fleetwhich caused so much damage in the first months of hostilities.
kyiv destroyed the Russian landing ship just this month ‘Caesar Kúnikov’ and the missile corvette «Ivanovets» near the coasts of the annexed Crimean peninsula.
Thanks to this, the main Ukrainian port, Odessaseems safe, although the former Russian president, Dmitri Medvédevinsist that this is a Russian city that will sooner or later return to the fold.
Change in the Ukrainian army
The second anniversary of the Russian invasion comes just after the replacement of the current head of the Ukrainian Army, who was dismissed by the president after months of public disagreements.
Analysts contacted by EFE rule out radical changes in military strategy, but they do warn that, if there is no substantial increase in the supply of Western weapons, the Ukrainian Army will have to limit itself to defending itself.
The dismissal of Zaluzhni, in whom nine out of ten Ukrainians trusted, according to polls, was highly criticized by the opposition and caused discomfort in a large part of society.
The new head of the Army, Oleksandr Sirskihas before him the difficult task of gaining the trust of his compatriots at a moment that is not auspicious, a priori, for Ukraine, where the unity around Zelensky is fraying in the absence of good news from the front.
Uncertainty regarding military aid
Ukraine enters the third year of the war with the uncertainty of whether it will continue to receive military assistance from the United States, where Republican congressmen block the $60 billion package proposed by the White House to continue supporting kyiv throughout 2024.
As Zelensky has repeated ad nauseam, the approval of this item is essential so that Ukraine can continue to defend itself with guarantees from Russian attacks, both on the battlefield and in the rear.
For this, air defense systems and long-range missiles are needed, in addition to the expected fighters. F-16which should arrive in the middle of this year.
kyiv is also waiting to receive almost half of the million 155 caliber artillery shells that the European Union promised to deliver to Ukraine before March this year.
Yes indeed, Brussels managed to avoid the Hungarian blockade and approved the package of 50,000 million euros in aid for the next four years, to which was added the commitment shown in recent months by countries such as Germany y France. EFE (I)
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