– Point number one is that Putin will not invade any NATO country. Then he has NATO against him, and the race will be over. The country that is most anxious now is Georgia.
This is what Sven G. Holtsmark, Russia expert and history professor at the Department of Defense Studies, Norwegian Defense College, tells Dagbladet.
On Thursday last week, both Georgia and Moldova submitted an application for EU membership. The two countries were part of the Soviet Union until the dissolution in 1991. Moldova borders Ukraine to the east.
Holtsmark believes, however, that it is too early to speculate that Putin will move on to Ukraine.
– We can already state that the adventure Ukraine is so far a military disaster for Russia. So far it has not gone according to plan.
Georgia at the top
The Russia expert believes Putin was taken to bed by two things after the invasion: the opposition he faced from the Ukrainians, as well as the West’s massive sanctions.
– I never think he would have started this then, if he knew that it was this quagmire he was embarking on, says Holtsmark and adds:
– But to the extent that he has a next goal, then it is Georgia.
NATO’s foremost guarantor
Moldova may also be relevant for Putin, but is not the next name on the bloc, Holtsmark believes.
Georgia is a much juicier piece of meat, a bigger player and much more important for Russia than Moldova, I think. But it becomes very speculative that he, as the situation has developed, plays with the idea of moving on.
LARGE DEMONSTRATIONS: In Georgia’s capital Tbilisi, many had gathered last week to express their dissatisfaction with Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Photo: Irakli Gedenidze / Reuters / NTB
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Hope for deterrent effect
For Putin does not care that human lives are lost, Holtsmark believes. What Putin cares about is the military opposition he is now facing in Ukraine.
– So we can hope that the West’s response, and Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian war machine, has actually acted as a deterrent.
Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug shares Holtsmark’s view of a failed invasion of Ukraine. He knows the conflict well, after three years as an OSCE observer in Eastern Ukraine.
– The worse this war ends for Russia, the less likely it is that they will start somewhere else, says Dalhaug.
GREAT RESISTANCE: The Russians have faced greater resistance than expected in the Ukrainian people. The photo will show Russian tanks taken by the Ukrainian military. Photo: Irina Rybakova / Press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces / Reuters / NTB
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– A new iron curtain
He says Europe is now divided between a democratic part, and an authoritarian and dictatorial part.
– The border for this runs from Norway’s border in the north, along Finland, the Baltics and Poland, and down to the Black Sea. Just beyond the border I have just outlined, there are three countries that have not found their final place: Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, which are at war with Russia.
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The first two also have Russian forces on their territory, he points out.
– We can imagine that a new iron curtain is lowered. Until now, EU policy has been that these three countries cannot become members. So what the map of Europe will look like will be affected by what kind of policy the EU and NATO will now pursue towards these countries. In this unresolved room, there are many possibilities for conflict to arise, he says and adds:
– Nobody knows what Ukraine will look like, and this helps to influence what Putin does next. They have faced great resistance and suffered great losses, which reduces the likelihood of them moving forward in the near perspective. But if Putin stays in office, what will he do in five years? It is not possible to say for sure about the situation further.
MANY APPEALS: More than 4,300 people were arrested on Sunday in around 56 Russian cities in connection with demonstrations against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the independent organization OVD-Info. Here, protesters are arrested in St. Petersburg on March 1. Photo: Dmitri Lovetsky / AP / NTB
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Fighting two wars
However, both Dalhaug and Holtsmark are fairly certain that it is not possible to envisage any imminent solution in Ukraine at present.
– The Ukrainians will not find themselves in anything other than Russian withdrawal, and that will not happen, Holtsmark says.
He points out that Putin is now waging two parallel wars: one against Ukraine and one at home against the Russian people.
– This will not end until Putin disappears from power. Then an opportunity opens up, Holtsmark believes.
TWO WARS: President Vladimir Putin is fighting two wars, according to an expert. One in Ukraine and one at home against the Russian people. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky / Kremlin / AP / NTB
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– Putin has introduced an absolute dictatorship in Russia. It is a brutal dictatorship, without legal certainty and with extremely strict information control. I mean the war in Ukraine and the war he is waging in Russia are connected. My hypothesis is that the first loss will come at home in Russia. That is my hypothesis and my hope.
He believes the end of the visa could be that Putin is forced from power by his own people.
– Personally, I may envision an old-fashioned popular uprising, as we saw in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
On the verge of collapse?
– Held in confusion
Dalhaug also believes that the Russian protests against the war in Ukraine have been stronger than one could have imagined.
– Despite severe punishments, thousands have protested. And yet we have not seen what effect it will have in Russia, when the fallen soldiers are sent back.
