According to TVN 24 BiSa change to the projected PKB for 2022 it results from the fact that so far the sanctions imposed by the G7 countries have focused on financial accounts and central bank reserves. This time it was announced that it would try to reduce it import from Russia and depriving them of export privileges. As if that was not enough, USA have given up their energy with Russia.
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Economic sanctions against Russia. Import and export from Russia
“After the introduction of these sanctions, there will be no item left in Russia’s balance of payments not covered by international restrictions,” predict analysts. And the world announces: “this is not the end yet”. Restrictions on imports from Russia are still marginal, although according to Goldman Sachs in the result Suspension of operations in Russia by many companies may change this.
A large part of the analysis was devoted to ports. Export Russia has been hit harder by the sanctions than anticipated. GS predicts a 20% decline in exports in Q1 2022. and 10 percent throughout the year. The bank’s representatives add that these forecasts may change, as exports are largely not subject to sanctions. Global supply chains are not the backbone of the Russian economy, so Russia manages to avoid immediate effects sanctions.
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Economic sanctions against Russia. What awaits Russia?
Goldman Sachs explains that the Russian mining sector imports only about 7 percent. their indirect purchases of goods and services. Russian steel is already covered by the European embargo. Even if the US does the same with fossil fuel, analysts say it will not lead to the destruction of the Russian economy. The sanctions will only redirect import and exports from Russia.
Nevertheless, the bank’s analysts predict that the dynamics of turnover during the current crisis will differ from other economic slumps. Domestic demand and exports will decline and export prices will rise sharply. It is expected that the volume of exports will be reduced by 10%. which should be connected with the sharp surplus in the current market surplus.
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