May 9 is a big holiday in Russia. Then the Russian people commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
The country then called the Soviet Union was led by Joseph Stalin, and made a decisive effort to ensure that the Allies defeated Adolf Hitler.
The “Great Patriotic War”, as it is called in Russia, is celebrated with a large military parade on Red Square in Moscow, and is celebrated all over the country. It is a popular celebration that is also important for President Vladimir Putin.
– It is the most symbol-heavy day in Russia, says former chief of the Norwegian Defense Staff, Arne Bård Dalhaug.
WINNING PARADE: People follow with excitement as the military vehicles roll through the streets of Tverskaya on their way to Red Square. It is rehearsed for the victory parade on May 9 in Russia. Photo: AP
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– Great pressure
Also The British Ministry of Defense wrote in a statement on April 21 that the May 9 celebrations are expected to be a possible reason why Russia will speed up operations.
– There will be enormous pressure on the Russian generals to make progress before that date. Putin is desperate to show military results, well-known military historian Petter Caddick-Adams recently told Inews.
Dalhaug believes that Putin is interested in showing what he has achieved when May 9 comes, but that it leads to military mistakes from Russia in Ukraine.
– I think the Russians need to coordinate and build a larger offensive. Instead, one sees that they deploy smaller forces here and there, but without much progress. It would be logical to take a break, he explains.
– I think the reason why there is no break is because the military has been under a lot of pressure to achieve the goals before 9 May. They do not act very sensibly, which I think is due to the fact that they are short of time, Dalhaug continues.
TIME PRESSURE: Russian President Vladimir Putin needs something to point to before his “D-Day” on May 9. Photo: AP
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This is what Putin needs
Caddick-Adams is clear that he believes Putin’s desperation for results will shape Russian actions in the coming weeks.
– There may be hasty and poorly planned Russian offensives, he says.
It is also a question of what will be a good enough triumph for Putin to bask in the glory of.
Dalhaug believes that Putin will be very happy if they have occupied the oblasts (counties) of Luhansk and Donetsk, which are located in the Donbas region, where the Russians have now shifted their focus towards.
A few days before the war, on February 21, Putin signed a document recognizing the two self-proclaimed breakaway republics of eastern Ukraine as independent. On February 24, Russian forces entered the country.
– If he gets control of the regional borders Luhansk and Donetsk, in addition to Mariupol and the land corridor by the Sea of Azov up to the annexed Crimean peninsula, they have an area that covers a lot. Several of these areas were occupied earlier, but if he manages to do so, it will be easy to spin a story around that he has followed up on what he signed, Dalhaug believes.
– What will happen if Russia does not achieve anything before 9 May?
– The Russian side will probably present it as a victory and that it goes according to plan anyway, but if they have not achieved more it will be much more difficult to present it as successful.
– Even the population in Russia is not completely without information from outside, and especially the younger ones will see that there is a big gap between what is said and what actually happens, Dalhaug answers.
WINNING PARADE: People follow with excitement as the military vehicles roll through the streets of Tverskaya on their way to Red Square. It is rehearsed for the victory parade on May 9 in Russia. Photo: AP
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– Do not believe it
On Monday a week ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went out and warned about the use of nuclear weapons and a possible World War III, but Dalhaug does not think there are any drastic Russian measures in store.
– It is difficult to see what it should be. This is part of what Putin has been doing when he has signaled his willingness to use nuclear weapons, without my believing that it will happen.
– The statements about a third world war also make no sense. If there is one thing Russia needs, it is to isolate the conflict to be about Russia and Ukraine, and not to interfere with anyone else. The Russians have more than enough problems as they already are, says Dalhaug.
Horror scenario
Experts around the world have recently been speculating about Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to declare victory on May 9.
Lieutenant Colonel and teacher in military strategy at the Swedish Defense College, Joakim Paasikivi, highlights two scenarios for what will happen on the big victory day.
Every year, the Russian president gives a speech to the people on the big feast day. This year, he may have to prepare two different speeches, Paasikivi believes.
“One of the speeches is that they have liberated the Donbas region from what they believe are Ukrainian Nazis and stopped the” genocide “of Russian-speaking people in the area, in addition to taking control of Mariupol, he says to the Swedish newspaper Expressen.
Such a victory speech will probably indicate that Russia is happy with what they have achieved, at the same time as the war will continue, he explains.
The second thing I fear may happen is that Putin says: “No, it was not only Ukrainian Nazis, but 40 European countries with Nazis who support Ukraine. We must go from a military operation to a war. “
The lieutenant colonel continues:
– If he says “war”, other laws will come into play, you can call in conscripts and reservists and start mobilizing. It can be very uncomfortable, because then there is a risk that it will escalate sharply.
Paasikivi does not rule out that Russia takes the nuclear threat, as Lavrov put it a week ago, seriously.
– There is a danger that it will happen. But in that case, I think he (Putin, journ.anm.) Would attack a relatively small place where it would not pose much damage. I do not think there will be nuclear attacks on Washington, London and Paris, but maybe in the Black Sea or somewhere in the middle of Ukraine. In that way, he will prove that he can, at the same time as it will make everyone pull out.
WINNING PARADE: People follow with excitement as the military vehicles roll through the streets of Tverskaya on their way to Red Square. It is rehearsed for the victory parade on May 9 in Russia. Photo: Natalia Kolesnikova / AFP
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Guest of honor
A bit like May 17 in Norway, but that the children’s trains have been replaced with a military parade to show strength, and prominent international guests are invited to the Red Square in Moscow.
This is how associate professor Tom Røseth at the staff school describes the holiday on May 9 in Russia.
Røseth explains that it has been a tradition to invite Western leaders as guests on the big day, but that in recent years they have shone with their absence.
This year, however, he believes there is a high probability that China’s Xi Jinping will be the guest of honor, and that the day will be used to mark victory over what Moscow refers to as the “Nazis” in Ukraine.
– The Kremlin will honor the soldiers who participate and want to point to important victories before the celebration begins in the Red Square, Røseth writes.
The problem for Putin is that the victories on the battlefield are small and have given the country large costs in personnel and equipment, according to the staff school’s associate professor.
– After Russia’s catastrophic operation north of Kyiv, where the Russian forces had to withdraw, Luhansk and Donetsk are probably the only goal that is actually realistic for Putin to set, says Arne Bård Dalhaug.
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