During 2021, the population of Russia declined by over one million people. It is a historic decline and the war in Ukraine will give President Vladimir Putin even grimmer numbers on the table.
– Since 1992, the number of deaths has been higher than the number of births in Russia. This has led to a downward spiral and a smaller number of the population. This led Vladimir Putin in 2006 to introduce cash prizes for women who have given birth to more than one child, says a senior researcher in Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI)Natalia Moen-Larsen.
Just before Putin assumed presidential power in Russia in 2000, there were over 148 million people living in the country. That figure shrank to about 143 million in 2022, according to UN data. The Russian authorities estimate the population to be 145 million (incl Cream), but this figure is very little recognized by other states.
A security issue
– In 2006, Putin argued that the demographic decline was a security concern for Russia. He wanted Russian women to give birth to more children and also introduced a number of measures to make the Russian lifestyle healthier, says Moen-Larsen.
Senior Researcher at NUPI, Natalia Moen-Larsen. Photo: NUPI.
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Mortality among Russian men was high. There are several and complex reasons for this, but crime, alcohol, unhealthy lifestyles, and drugs were contributing factors.
15 percent more women
And there are more and more women in Russia today. In the vast majority of countries, there is a one to two percent difference in the number of people of each sex.
In Russia there are 15% more women than men.
– The introduction of a market economy and industrialization led to many changes in Russian society in the 1990s and this has been seen to lead to an increase in mortality, especially among men. They identified more with work and lost their identity during the transition, while women were more attached to traditional family duties, Moen-Larsen tells Dagbladet.
He thinks the West will destroy Russia if nuclear weapons are used
High alcohol consumption and crime
Mortality among Russian men has been high and there are several complex reasons for this.
– Russia has been characterized by workplace accidents, high levels of alcohol and drug abuse and a lot of crime. Many led an unhealthy lifestyle with physical inactivity and many smoked. In summary, many have lived difficult lives, says the NUPI researcher.
Now the war in Ukraine appears to be a serious long-term threat to the gender imbalance in Russia as Russian men become cannon fodder in the war.
Scientists sound the alarm
Two Russian researchers have just presented a report that points to exactly this. According to Oleg Itskhoki of the University of Princeton and Maxim Mironov of the University of Madrid Novaya Gazeta studied this.
There is uncertainty about the war casualty figures, but according to their research, Russia has so far suffered between 35,000 and 40,000 war deaths and three times as many soldiers have been injured.
– To replace the dead and wounded and to allow for the smooth rotation of Russian forces in Ukraine, 700,000 to one million men will be needed, write Itskhoki and Mironov.
Most of these men will be between the ages of 20 and 30, a group which counts only 7.3 million in Russia today due to low birth rates in the 1990s.
High mortality among young people
This means that around 25 percent of that age group will have to serve in the war against Ukraine. In their research, they point out that in total Russia can lose more than 10 percent of men in the age group 20–29 years.
– Many have fled the war mobilization in Ukraine, some are hiding to avoid war and a good number of people have left the country in the aftermath of the war, says Moen-Larsen.
He believes it is difficult to determine how many actually fled before the war ended and the dust settled. In the days following the implementation of the mobilization of 300,000 soldiers, many left the country.
– All the planes and trains were full of Russian men and families. The lines of cars to the border with Georgia and elsewhere were many miles long, she says.
The consequence of going to war without military training is that you can be seriously injured or die. It also means that all of these young men are trained to survive a war in which there is a completely different morality and structure for what is normal.
The horrors of war
– Divide the world into “us” versus “the enemy” and this means that the line between right and wrong is being moved. Young people travel abroad and experience the horrors of war, but one day they must return to civilian life. It could potentially lead to an increase in the level of violence and crime, she says.
Several killed after the explosions in Kiev
Itskhoki and Mironov also point out that the war has had two main demographic consequences so far. The immediate one is that several hundred thousand men try to avoid Putin’s mobilization, the second, and more serious in the long run according to the researchers, are all those who will lose their lives in war.
The future of Russia
– Many young people will die in this war and this will affect the future of Russia for many decades to come. After World War II it was seen that demographic gaps with a much lower percentage of men than women in society. It wasn’t until the 1980s that gender balance returned to normal in the Soviet Union, says Moen-Larsen
In Russia, many families already live without a father figure present. The tradition of patriotic education and the cultivation of heroic tales of World War II can be continued as the cultivation of heroic tales of this war too.
“The lost generation”
– There is a large part of the population born in the 1980s who grew up with only a mother and possibly siblings. Those who were young adults in the 1990s are often called the “lost generation” in Russia.
– And now it can happen again?
– Yes, now Russia risks having another generation lost to the war in Ukraine, says Natalia Moen-Larsen, senior researcher at NUPI.
