After more than a month of war, Russia is struggling to make progress in Ukraine.
This has led to several Russian interventions being announced.
On Tuesday, the Russian defense leadership stated that the Russian forces will “drastically reduce” the attacks in northern Ukraine, and withdraw some of the forces from the areas around Kyiv.
Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin says the decision to step down attacks on the two Ukrainian cities was taken to “increase mutual trust so that a peace agreement can be negotiated and signed with Ukraine,” according to Moscow Financial Times correspondent Max Seddon. .
– Right
Earlier in the war, Russia announced a temporary ceasefire, but did not comply.
Former chief of the defense staff, Arne Bård Dalhaug, tells Dagbladet that he thinks the Russians’ warning to withdraw is real.
– But the reasoning they use is not what is true, says Dalhaug.
He justifies this with the fact that it has long been clear that things have gone badly for the Russian forces north of the capital Kyiv, which has barely moved in recent weeks.
– Shocks the Russians
– This is probably more of an attempt to camouflage a failed campaign, which they give to Ukraine as an admission to start the peace talks. This is a bit of a Russian distortion of reality. It has been signaled that this could happen.
On Monday, the Financial Times reported that Russia in a draft peace negotiations has removed three of its previous main demands. Neither “de-Nazification”, “demilitarization” nor legal protection of the Russian language within Ukraine should be on the list of Russia’s demands.
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Loses face
Russia also allows Ukraine to become part of the EU.
– This is not a “good will” from Russia, but an acceptance of fact on the ground in Ukraine, they are trying to pretend it is an admission. It has been assumed that these requirements were abandoned some time ago. These were probably requirements that applied to the original plan, when Putin envisioned that the war could be won quickly, and he could put in place a “puppet regime” in Kyiv, Dalhaug explains.
– Does Putin lose face in this?
From the outside, it is clear that Putin has lost face in recent weeks. No one considers Russia’s position to be impressive anymore. The Russian army has not delivered as expected. They have suffered heavy losses, appearing unprofessional and uncoordinated. The question is how he can spin this internally, Dalhaug answers.
DEFENSE STOP: Arne Bård Dalhaug was from 2005 to 2008 chief of the Defense Staff in Norway. Photo: NTB
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Changed strategy
He believes that Russia will continue to bomb civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine, but that they now see negotiations as the way out of the war, and have changed strategy.
He points out that the Russians have lost and regressed in and around Kyiv, Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv, and the port city of Kherson which they first occupied.
– They will focus on keeping the areas in the south, Luhansk, and the Donbas region. It is expected that they will reach their goals in Mariupol, and that they can establish a land corridor along the Azov Sea to the Crimea, Dalhaug concludes.
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