The fighting has been going on for two weeks in eastern Ukraine – primarily in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the Donbas area.
After two weeks of fighting in eastern Ukraine, the Russians have taken little ground, Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen explains to Dagbladet.
– So far there has been little progress for the Russians. We will probably see a long and bloody conflict in the area, says Karlsen.
May 9 is a very important day for the Russians, and there is speculation as to what Russia’s plans are for this day.
Supports the invasion of Ukraine
«Full control»
The Ukrainian government said on Friday that Russia plans to take control of the Azovstal steelworks in the port city of Mariupol by the May 9 celebrations. To this Karlsen says:
– This is the last area in the port city of Mariupol in the south that remains before the Russians gain full control of the Azov coastline between Crimea and the border with Russia. Ukraine has been in this area for about eight weeks now.
The lieutenant colonel says that the Azovstal steelworks is a large area of about ten square kilometers – possibly more.
– The Russians have now taken the eastern part and moved into the steelworks, but there are many square kilometers left before a victory. This was the last hope for President Putin to bring about a victory on Victory Day May 9 – a big day in Russia where they celebrate when the Russians beat the Nazis, he says.
Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen on the invasion. Photo: Dagbladet
sea view
– Three days left
There is possibly a hope from the Russian side that they have at least taken control of the city of Mariupol by May 9, he explains.
– But there are three days left, and there is still a lot of area left on this steelworks, so I really doubt if it will succeed. Then it becomes less and less to celebrate for President Putin, and it becomes very clear to everyone that the operation on the ground in Ukraine has gone very badly.
– In “game changer”
The lieutenant colonel talks about the various scenarios that have been discussed in connection with the May 9 celebrations in Russia:
One scenario is that President Putin will declare that they are now at war – not only against the Nazis in Ukraine, which they have talked about, but Nazis throughout the West.
Russia has so far called the war a “special operation” – and never a war.
– War on all Nazism
– The advantage of declaring that they are at war with all Nazis, or Nazism in the West, is that they can then call in soldiers accordingly when we call in soldiers for “rehearsal” (rehearsal service journ.anm.) Here. They are not allowed to do that as it is now.
This means, among other things, that Russia can call in conscripts who completed their first service this April, and others who have been in the military before.
– Will be tortured
– Another scenario, as the pope stated, is that they will declare a ceasefire. But a ceasefire presupposes that both the Ukrainians and the Russians agree on that, so I think that is a very unlikely scenario. So we will see what happens on Monday, says Karlsen.
Asked about the reaction that could come from Putin declaring full war, the lieutenant colonel says:
– There is a danger that it intensifies dissatisfaction in Russian society. On the other hand, we must not forget that they have full control over the media and propaganda internally, so it is difficult to predict how it will play out internally.
Can strengthen the enemy image
Karlsen believes it can also strengthen the enemy image of the world around Russia, so that people support more around President Putin and the regime – a greater recognition that one is at war with the West. In the same way as one was at war with the Nazis during World War II.
– It is very difficult to measure the mood internally in Russia, he says.
When asked about the Russian will to fight, Karlsen says:
The pope: – Do not be Putin’s altar boy
– The Russians often live in an information bubble, because all Russian media are Putin-friendly and regime loyal. We think the morale of the Russian forces is quite low.
This is because the war against a neighboring country is quite meaningless, in addition to the fact that the Russians have taken a lot of losses.
– There has been poor logistics and poor planning, and there are many reasons why Russian morale may be low, according to Karlsen.
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