PRESIDENT: Volodymyr Zelenskyy has led Ukraine through nearly two years of full-scale Russian warfare. Photo: SERGEY DOLZHENKO / EPA / NTB
Volodymyr Zelenskyj (45) denies that there is a standstill and stalemate in the war. – It is important for the president to talk about continued attempts at progress, says an expert to VG. But Ukrainian military tells a different story.
Published:
Less than 20 minutes ago
It was in an interview with American NBC, rendered by Skythat Ukraine’s head of state denied claims that there is a lull in the war.
Zelenskyy stated that his soldiers are still more motivated than the Russians have ever been.
– It is important for Zelenskyj to face such an attitude, says Professor Katarzyna Zysk at the Department of Defense Studies to VG.
– Why?
– It is both about keeping up the fighting morale in Ukraine – but also important to emphasize because there is persistent pressure in certain circles on the western side to bring about some form of peace negotiations with Russia.
– The pressure will increase if it becomes clear that a standstill has been reached. But it is also possible that this is the conclusion Zelenskyj has drawn from an overall assessment of the development at the tactical, operational and strategic level, says Katarzyna Zysk and thus answers whether there really is a standstill and stalemate in the war:
– There are many indications of that, even though there are different assessments coming from the highest levels in Ukraine itself. According to the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian offensive has reached a standstill. There is data showing that in October Russian forces have captured 17 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have captured 28 square kilometers, which may indicate a standstill. At the same time, Zelenskyj says that this is not the case, and that there will be more attempts to make more progress on the battlefield.
ACTIVE: Volodymyr Zelenskyj photographed during a visit to a military training center recently. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP / NTB
The statement from Zaluzhny led to Kyiv having to put out the fire, both from Zelenskyj himself and his advisor Ihor Zhovkva, who warned against such intimidation propaganda. On the Russian side, the statement was exploited for all it was worth – including false reports on social media that the general was calling for a coup.
Zelenskyi’s former adviser, Oleksiy Arestovich, speaks in Spanish The world that it is a conflict:
– We are facing a situation where the commander-in-chief says one thing about the conflict and the prospects for victory, and the president says something completely different. This is an abnormal situation.
Also Time Magazine has had an article claiming that Zelenskyj refuses to realize that the war is deadlocked.
Professor Zysk responds as follows to VG’s question whether the Russians will continue to bomb Ukrainian water, heat and electricity this winter – in the same way as they did last winter:
– There have been somewhat fewer Russian missile attacks recently. According to some Western records, Russia used an average of around 180 missiles per month in attacks on Ukraine in the period July – September this year. In October, they used less than 20, excluding Russian attacks with Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones. There are sources that suggest that Russia is saving missiles in anticipation of the colder weather, so that when they attack again, it will have a more devastating effect on the Ukrainian population. Attacks on critical infrastructure that have already occurred
emphasized in Russian military doctrine for many years, and still plays a central role in Russian warfare.
– We will probably see further Russian attempts to undermine the basic functions of the state and hit the civilian population in order to destroy their morale and will to fight by attacking military installations and functions, targets of great economic and societal importance, such as industry, energy transport and communications , says Katarzyna Zysk.
EXPERT: Professor Katarzyna Zysk. Photo: Olav Standal Tangen / The Armed Forces
Peter Viggo Jakobsen at the Danish Defense Academy is of the same opinion:
– Yes, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure to destroy water, heat and electricity would be logical in order to exhaust the Ukrainian government and force the Ukrainian defense to use a lot of resources far behind the front – instead of attacking Russian positions at the front.
– It is difficult for the Ukrainians to respond in the same way and attack Russian infrastructure, because the US puts pressure on Ukraine not to use American-made weapons to attack infrastructure inside Russia itself. They allow use only in the occupied areas. Ukraine cannot therefore respond in kind. Ukraine is far more vulnerable here than the Russians.
Ukrainian soldiers drive past a burning car – which has been hit by a kamikaze drone. The photo is from the Donetsk region in Ukraine. Photo: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO / Reuters / NTB
Peter Viggo Jakobsen also believes that the job war will continue.
– It looks difficult for both parties to break the position war. When the mud comes and they have to use roads and railways, they are more difficult to have offensive operations for either side. There will be an opportunity when the soil hardens from the frost, but it is more difficult for both people and machines in freezing temperatures than in summer. The harsher the winter, the harder it is to fight.
– The big question for me is to see whether any of the parties will be able to break the position war in the spring/summer of 2024. It did not work out for Ukraine this summer, and it will not be easy next summer either. The way it looks now, it will be difficult for both parties to break through the other party’s defense lines. Russia has not been able to do it since the summer of 2022, and Ukraine has not been able to do it either since they conquered Kherson in November 2022, says Peter Viggo Jakobsen to VG.
– What will Western fighter jets mean for Ukraine?
– There is no prospect of any of the parties being able to establish air supremacy over the front long enough to provide continuous and effective support for advancing land forces. The F-16 will be a great help to the Ukrainians, but the F-16 is also vulnerable to the Russian air force.
Published:
Published: 14.11.23 at 01:15
Copy linkCopy linkShare on FacebookShare on FacebookShare by emailShare by email
2023-11-14 00:15:30
#Zelenskyj #denies #war #deadlocked #pressure #increase
