The war in Ukraine – Power struggle in Putin’s circle:

This week, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Defense Chief Valeriy Gerasimov will take over leadership of the Russian forces in Ukraine. He takes over from General Sergej Surovikin, often referred to as “General Armageddon”. Surovikin will now serve as Gerasimov’s second-in-command.

The purpose of the latest leadership change is to strengthen the efficiency in handling the military operations in Ukraine, according to Russia’s Ministry of Defence.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) one of the reasons for the change is that the Russian Ministry of Defense is allegedly trying to prevent criticism from some of those who have become more critical of how the war is conducted – including military bloggers and the leader of the paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The aim is allegedly to restore the “traditional power structures”, writes ISW.

– Incompetent

Another reason for the new appointment is that Russia is trying to gain better control over the military efforts in Ukraine, and to continue the Russians’ offensive operations in Ukraine.

Appointed defense chief in 2012, Gerasimov was instrumental in the 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and the subsequent war in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Former defense chief Sverre Diesen believes the appointment of Gerasimov is a clear expression that the war in Ukraine is not going as planned.

– It is unnatural that the chief of the general staff is appointed to lead an ongoing operation directly, says Diesen to Dagbladet, and continues:

– I interpret it to mean that Putin is not particularly satisfied with how the war has developed, but Gerasimov cannot possibly carry out two individually very demanding and different jobs at the same time in a satisfactory manner.

Rocking amazes

Retired lieutenant general Arne Bård Dalhaug tells Dagbladet that Gerasimov is the one who bears a great deal of responsibility for the fact that the war in Ukraine has gone so badly for Russia.

– Gerasimov became chief of defense in Russia in 2012, and has been the main architect of what were supposed to be reforms for the Russian defence. It has ended up with the very poor results we see in Ukraine today, says Dalhaug to Dagbladet.

He adds:

– Gerasimov is a person who clearly has a great deal of responsibility for the quagmire in which the Russian forces find themselves today, says Dalhaug.

Researcher at the American think tank Rand Corporation, Dara Massicot, is not unsparing in his criticism of the decision to replace Surovikin with Gerasimov.

– They demote their most competent commander and replace him with an incompetent one, writes Massicot Twitter.

Massicot further writes that Surovikin has not made major strategic mistakes on the battlefield in Ukraine – unlike other Russian generals.

She believes that the change of commander-in-chief is about an internal power struggle in Russia

– With this change, I see it as a power struggle that has resulted in the favor of Shoigu (Defence Minister Sergej Shoigu, journ. note) and Gerasimov.

Wanted in Russia

Conflicting messages

Yevgeny Prigozhin and the private military company Wagner Group have become increasingly central during the war in Ukraine. Several of the mercenaries of the paramilitary group have been sent to Ukraine to fight in the war, despite the fact that private military companies are currently illegal in Russia.

Prigozhin has also expressed himself several times critically about the lack of progress of the Russians in Ukraine. He has also openly criticized Gerasimov.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin claimed, among other things, that the Wagner group had single-handedly taken control of Soledar in Donetsk. There has been fierce fighting around the city in the last week. However, the Kremlin has refrained from declaring victory in Soledar, and they have also disputed claims that the Wagner Group has single-handedly taken control of the city.

On Friday morning, however, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces had taken control of Soledar. Ukrainian government officials deny this BBC that the Russians are in control of the city, and claim the fighting is still going on.

– Signs of division

Lecturer in military science at Försvarshögskolan in Sweden, Ilmari Käihkö, believes the conflicting messages to the Wagner group and the Russian Ministry of Defense may be a sign of division.

– It is a sign of division in the Russian forces, which is probably not least about a domestic political power struggle, and about Prigozhin who is trying to establish himself politically in Russia, Käihkö tells the TT news agency.

Dalhaug says that one of the theories among experts is that Prigozhin has a rising political star in Russia, and especially among ultra-nationalists. He believes it may indicate an internal power struggle in the Kremlin.

– Putting Gerasimov into this operation could be an attempt to also weaken Prigozhin’s influence, says Dalhaug.

In November, Politico wrote that an internal power struggle was taking place among the Russian leaders. On one side will be Russian security authorities, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov. On the other side, Chechnya’s dictator Ramzan Kadyrov is said to have stood together with Yevgeny Prigozhin. Both are said to have expressed support for Surovikin.

Ukraine’s three great advantages

Several analysts state to New York Times that the appointment of Gerasimov shows that Putin is focusing on stabilizing his internal power structure, and ensuring that he retains support among his allies, rather than correcting the mistakes of the Russian military.

– Always a power struggle

Putin has largely been spared from the ever-increasing criticism within Russia about the lack of progress of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Lieutenant-Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen is unsure whether the appointment of Gerasimov means whether he is on his way out of the top management, or whether he will thereby be given direct responsibility for the combat actions of the Russians.

He points out that Russia has changed commanders a number of times during the war in Ukraine. Putin will have until August fired six generals, according to British intelligence.

– They have rotated managers at all levels very many times, without it having produced enormously good results, to say the least, says Hågen Karlsen to Dagbladet TV.

– There is always a power struggle at the top in Russia. It always has. This is a matter of political influence. There is corruption and access to resources. It is a bit early to read exactly what the appointment of Gerasimov means, I think we will spend some time on that. So I’m not sure if it’s going up or down for him, says Hågen Karlsen.

– Bad sign

Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Armed Forces College (FHS), says that the fact that the commander-in-chief of Russian forces is constantly being replaced is exclusively a “bad sign”.

– That Russia takes such leadership measures continuously shows that the war is going badly for them, said Røseth to Dagbladet on Wednesday.

He does not believe that the Russian military’s efforts in Ukraine will be significantly changed by the appointment.

Tracks new Russian revolution

– He wants to be a general who can coordinate different arms and operations. Coordination in Ukraine can be improved somewhat, but this is not something that can be changed quickly. It is difficult to see that this can be a “quick fix”.

The height of the fall for Gerasimov is enormous, Røseth believes.

– Now he will be held responsible. If he doesn’t deliver, he will get the “fire”, like his predecessors. Then his high reputation will fall, and he will lose much of his reputation, says Røseth.