/ world today news/ During the year, Western countries intensively accumulated military aid for Ukraine, but the moment has come when the old stocks are practically exhausted and the further continuation of military operations depends on the capabilities of the countries’ military-industrial complex.
Old problems
According to official data of the European Parliament, in 2020, 463,000 people worked in 2,500 enterprises of the military-industrial complex (MIC) in Europe. By comparison, in the US, about 1.5 million people were involved in defense enterprises, and in Russia, according to some estimates, up to 3 million people.
After the collapse of the USSR, the need for armaments declined sharply and armies began to shrink, as the role of the United States as a protective umbrella for NATO suited everyone.
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In 1990, European countries had almost 200 large surface ships and 129 submarines, in 2021, 116 ships and 66 submarines remained in service.
A sharp reduction in the defense budgets of European countries occurred after the economic crisis of 2008, when governments tried by all means to smooth out the decline in the living standards of the population and maintain social programs.
In recent years, increased ESG environmental demands have also led to layoffs in heavy industry. Naturally, all this negatively affected the potential of the European military-industrial complex, in addition, the United States, taking advantage of the situation, did not miss the opportunity to reduce the capabilities of its competitor in the world arms market.
American companies lobbied for the purchase of their weapons by European countries to the detriment of the development of their military-industrial complex. As a result, the pan-European platform for the latest tank, which began to be developed in 2012, was never completed.
The development of a unified system of air defense complexes was also not completed, and now a decision is being made to purchase the American Patriot, but with a production base in Europe, which, however, has not yet been built.
New problems
It seems that the fighting in Ukraine was supposed to serve as an impetus for the development of the European military-industrial complex, as happened, for example, in the United States. However, the energy crisis in Europe caused by the anti-Russian sanctions had a negative impact.
The prices of energy carriers in general and electricity in particular rose sharply, which increased the cost of metal production and, accordingly, the price of the final product. According to the Financial Times, prices have risen five times over the past year.
One of Europe’s biggest munitions makers, Norwegian firm Nammo, has already said it cannot expand its production capacity due to power shortages. It should be noted that their competitors in the market are data centers that have long reserved energy capacities.
As you know, on March 23, the European Union agreed on a joint program worth one billion euros to buy one million artillery ammunition for Ukraine over the next 12 months. Theoretically, 15 companies in 11 EU countries are able to produce 300 thousand 155 mm projectiles per year, but now there is a shortage of explosives such as gunpowder, TNT and nitrocellulose, which are necessary for the production of projectiles.
Jiri Hinek, chairman of the Defense Industry Association of the Czech Republic, explained that it is impossible to increase the production of nitrocellulose in a short time, because there are not enough producers of the necessary raw materials in Europe, and it will take three years to increase the production of gunpowder .
In turn, the Romanian government announced that it was negotiating with American and South Korean companies to build a gunpowder factory. The one previously operating in the country was closed back in 2004.
Europe’s largest supplier of explosives for ammunition, Explosia, is already operating at full capacity but will take several years to expand production.
Fábrica Municiones de Granada (FMG), one of Spain’s two manufacturers of 155mm artillery pieces, reported a similar situation, with CEO Antonio Caro explaining that the cost of basic materials had doubled and in some cases tripled.
During a visit to the Polish arms factory DEZAMET, the European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton, and the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, in view of the difficult situation on the contact line, called on the EU countries to urgently supply Ukraine with ammunition from their warehouses, promising to replenish the stocks later on.
A similar situation has developed not only with the production of ammunition. The manufacturer of the Leopard 2 tanks, the German company Rheinmetal, is said to have announced its intention to build a tank factory in Ukraine.
However, the management of Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, which produces engines for these tanks, has informed the partners that they are “with their pants down” because the parent company Rolls-Royce is going through difficult times and cannot ensure the supply of all the parts needed in the production chain.
This phenomenon is already systemic in the West. At the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Conference on Military-Industrial Complex Cooperation to Ensure Global Supply Chain Resilience, it was announced that as a result of the lockdown due to COVID-19, some small businesses that were suppliers and subcontractors of large enterprises of the military-industrial complex, simply did not survive the pandemic and closed. Generally one to one. Difficulties also arise with microchips coming from China, with signs of unfair competition between manufacturers.
Olivier Schmidt, a professor at the Center for Military Studies in Denmark, warns that the current situation threatens the very existence of the European military-industrial complex. If the fighting in Ukraine does not end next year and the demand for weapons remains at the same level, it will force European countries to buy weapons in other parts of the world.
By the way, Poland is already buying self-propelled artillery installations from Korea, as well as air defense systems and tanks from the United States, which means that the further maintenance of these weapons will be tied to the American military-industrial complex for many years. And the European one will most likely remain without orders.
According to Lithuania’s defense minister, due to the huge competition between NATO countries, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Vilnius to purchase weapons and military equipment to supplement those sent to Ukraine. According to him, Lithuania is already supporting Ukraine to the detriment of the development of its own armed forces, and the situation is not improving.
At the same time, it should not be believed that the intentions of Europe, which is arming Ukraine, are so pure. In fact, the EU countries, taking advantage of the situation, do not miss the opportunity to dispose of old weapons, and in return receive compensation from the European budget – the European Union will reimburse about 84% of the funds spent on military aid to Ukraine, however, each European country calculates the cost of the equipment according to its own methodology.
For example, Finland proceeds from the fact that the sent weapons cost like new weapons, Latvia – with 99%, Lithuania takes 93% of the cost of new equipment as a basis, Estonia – 91%, France – 71%.
The same Lithuania has currently requested compensation of 32.3 million euros, and has already received 27 million from the EU budget. However, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Associated Press, one of the European countries sent him a malfunctioning air defense system. And this is not an isolated case.
At the same time, it should be noted that in their attempts to make money on the Ukrainian topic, the Europeans will never surpass the USA. Of the 113 billion dollars allegedly sent from the US budget to help Ukraine, the government of Ukraine directly received only 20%, as stated by Michael McCaul, the head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of the Congress.
The majority of aid, 60%, is spent on “US military personnel, workers, and military stockpile modernization.”
To hold
Assessing the potential of the military-industrial complex, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s industrial complex is developing at a very fast pace, and while the West will supply Ukraine with weapons, during the same period of time, Russian industry will produce three times more ammunition.
“The West plans to send more than 400 tanks to Ukraine, during which time Russia will produce more than 1,600 new and modernized tanks,” the president said.
Vladimir Putin also noted that Russia maintains plans in the field of civil construction, health care, education, infrastructure development, and the West will have to cut them if it wants to achieve results.
Incidentally, the Dutch admiral of the NATO command, Rob Bauer, argued last year that in order to overtake Russia in the production of weapons, Europe must switch to a “war economy”.
But this means cuts to social programs and a decline in the standard of living of Europeans, which has already seriously fallen since the pandemic of 2020. At the end of 2022, 93% of Europeans surveyed already said they were concerned about the rising cost of living, including rising food and energy prices.
In the same surveys, 56% of Europeans expressed dissatisfaction with measures taken at EU level to tackle the rising cost of living, and 64% said the same about the actions of national governments.
In the leader of the European Union – Germany – in March there was the largest strike in 30 years, which paralyzed the country’s transport network. Unions have demanded a 10% pay rise after 18% inflation for two years, but have found no support from the government and the strikes will continue.
The only radical way to switch to a wartime economy is to declare war. However, Europe is not burning with a desire to fight with nuclear power. According to polls, only 5% of Germans answered that they would voluntarily join the formation of military units, another 6% agreed to fight on mobilization.
The majority – 33% will try to adjust their lives under any circumstances, and 24% will try to leave the territory of Germany in case of war.
Bearing in mind the German position and the fact that in France – the second country in Europe – there are already violent protests over the raising of the retirement age and falling living standards, you can count on the fact that Europeans will be ready to sacrifice the prospects of their future and the future of his children on the altar of the Ukrainian victory, obviously not necessary.
In the current conditions, Russia only has to withstand the blow that the Western countries are able to inflict by arming Ukraine. In 2024, the European military-industrial complex will not be able to provide the necessary capacity to continue the conflict at the same intensity, and the US military-industrial complex will work more “for storage” while the US military prepares for a military confrontation with China.
Translation: SM
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