The war in Ukraine – New move:

Despite the fact that Russia has suffered huge losses in Ukraine, its air force is still relatively intact, according to the think tank International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

Tankesmia believes that the Russians will use their air force more actively in the coming phase of the war, writes Reuters. An anonymous NATO diplomat speaks Financial Times that they estimate that Russia has about 80 percent of its air defense available.

Western intelligence also says that Russia is moving its planes closer to the border with Ukraine, writes Business Insider. Several intelligence reports believe that it is an indication that Russia is preparing to use its fighter jets and helicopters in the war.

– Can be pressured

Associate professor at the Norwegian Air Force School, Lars Peder Haga believes that the chance that Russia will use its air force more actively in the future is relatively low.

– The Ukrainian air defense is still effective, and in some ways perhaps even more effective than before with the supply of Western air defense systems, says Haga to Dagbladet.

However, Haga says that the situation can change if there is a political demand from Russia that noticeable progress is required in the war, especially in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

There are some indications of this, he believes – including the ongoing ground offensive from the Russians, and the fact that the anniversary of the recognition of the “people’s republics” is approaching. At the end of September, Russia annexed four Russian-occupied areas, including Donetsk.

– Then the Russian air forces may be pressured to take greater risks and endure greater losses, says Haga.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has also warned that there may be large and symbolic Russian attacks during the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

A Russian offensive with the use of fighter jets could make the situation more difficult for Ukraine, Haga believes.

– The consequence will be that the Ukrainian air defense forces will have to use more air defense and available combat aircraft against Russian combat aircraft. This will mean that they will have fewer resources to defend themselves against cruise missile attacks, he says, adding:

– In the worst case, Russia could win greater freedom of action in the air over Ukrainian territory, and make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to move and resupply their ground forces along the front, says Haga.

– Extremely high risk

During the war, Ukraine received large quantities of air defense systems from the West, including the Norwegian anti-aircraft missile system NASAMS. The air defense has, among other things, been of great help to the Ukrainians when Russian missiles have set course for Ukrainian cities.

Johan Huovinen at the Swedish Försvarshögskolan tells Dagbladet that Russia’s opportunities to operate with air forces in Ukraine are limited. This is due to the large supply of air defense systems from the West to Ukraine.

– Air defense systems provide good protection over central parts of the population, as well as the operational areas where the fighting is going on today. The amount of air defense systems denies Russia the opportunity to create supremacy in the air, says Huovinen to Dagbladet.

Crisis numbers: – Much weaker

Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø doubts that there will be regular air strikes from the Russian side in the future.

– It is simply because the air defenses on both sides are so good and dense that the risk of being shot down when you come with fighter planes over the front line is extremely high, Ydstebø tells Dagbladet TV.

So far in the war, Russia has not actively used fighter jets in Ukraine. Huovinen says that this is because Russia suffered relatively high losses of several attack aircraft in the initial phase of the war.

– Russia also lacks GPS-guided ammunition, which means that the risk of poor precision and damage to civilians is imminent, says Huovinen.

Opens to send fighters

Warning

During a meeting with allies earlier in February, US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin is said to have clarified the threat that Russia could use its air forces, writes the Financial Times.

– He was very clear that we have a small window of time to prepare Ukraine for an offensive and they have quite specific needs, says an anonymous US official to the Financial Times.

The source goes on to say that if Ukraine is to survive, they need as much air defense and ammunition as possible.

Haga at the Norwegian Air Force School believes that Ukraine has several needs to resist a Russian offensive.

– Wise use of air defense and the few combat aircraft they have will be important. But they also have to disperse and camouflage their own forces, move them often and build cover and cover rooms to make themselves difficult targets, says Haga.

Will send fighter jets to Ukraine

Increases the pressure

Recently, several Western countries have discussed the extent to which Ukraine should get fighter jets to resist Russian attacks. The discussion comes shortly after several countries, including Germany, decided to send tanks to Ukraine.

However, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz has stated that it is out of the question for them to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Poland, for its part, is now looking at the possibility of sending 29 MiG-type fighters to Ukraine. That’s what Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with the Ukrainian newspaper UKrinform.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently visited the UK where he asked for the Ukrainian defense to get fighter jets.

When asked whether the pressure on the West will increase to give Ukraine fighter jets if the Russians start using fighter jets actively, Haga replies:

– I think that is very likely.