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The war in Ukraine: – More desperate

On Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons. He then pointed out that he is not bluffing. Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) researcher Sverre Diesen believes this indicates that Putin is becoming increasingly desperate.

– It is probably still something he is doing mainly to create a lot of fear and disagreement in the West if we stop supporting the Ukrainians. But at the same time, this speech tells us that Putin is increasingly desperate and sees no other way out of the corner he painted himself in than winning the war at any cost, Diesen tells Dagbladet.

He is also a retired general and served as Norwegian Chief of Defense from 2005 to 2009.

Otherwise, he fears both for the survival of the regime and for his own legacy. The West should therefore make sure that it eliminates all doubts that the use of a nuclear weapon will be subject to retaliation. Anything else will be very dangerous; if he doesn’t understand, he will be tempted to try.

On Wednesday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg described Putin’s rhetoric as dangerous and reckless. He also stressed the importance of ensuring that there is no room in Moscow for misunderstanding about the use of nuclear weapons.

RESEARCHER: Sverre Diesen at FFI. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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Television speech

On Wednesday morning, Putin announced in a televised speech that Russia will carry out a partial mobilization. Subsequently, Defense Minister Sergej Shoigu said he will send 300,000 reserve troops to war in Ukraine.

– It is a form of recognition that Russia has failed with the so-called special operation, and must now go to the mobilization of the country’s human resources to replace the losses and regain the initiative, says Diesen and continues:

– But since he cannot admit that the Ukrainians have inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Russian war machine, he must justify the mobilization by saying that it is actually the West with which Russia is at war.

RESPONSIBILITY: Jens Stoltenberg tells the Dagbladet reporter that Joe Biden’s speech was important and that the United States takes responsibility for the world. Video and reporter: Vegard Kvaale / Dagbladet TV.
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Effect

– What effect do you think this will have?

– I’m not sure this will have a particularly large military effect as long as the Russians don’t have the opportunity to use such a large staff pool, says Diesen.

Diesen believes that Russia does not have these opportunities as long as it has neither sufficient material nor officers to equip and train such large new departments.

– They have already deployed these resources in Ukraine and this limits their ability to generate new forces. So they were supposed to keep a larger part of the force in Russia as production equipment for the new departments, but obviously they didn’t expect to use it, Diesen says and adds that it would take some time anyway.

– So there is only the possibility of inserting these reservists in the already dilapidated departments in Ukraine as replacement staff, but this will have little positive effect both on the practical level and on the morale of the struggle.

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