– The fact that China supports Russia means that many people see the outcome of the war in Ukraine as a result of the power of the West – versus the power of authoritarian regimes, says Tom Røseth, who is the head teacher of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College.
He points out that Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday assured Vladimir Putin that China still supports Russian “sovereignty and security”.
For Russia, this is of great importance, Røseth believes, and if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it will be important for many more, according to him.
– In Africa and Asia, many states may interpret what the fall of the West about the war is in Russia’s favor, and lean more towards Beijing, so this can have global consequences, Røseth says.
Putin’s biggest fear
– Sees a shift
The reputation of the “fall of the West” will be strengthened if an authoritarian regime manages to take much of Ukraine despite the opposition in European and Western countries, he believes.
– Other states can then see that they can take territory without being punished, and that authoritarian regimes can be stronger than the democratic ones, Røseth says.
– It may also make more countries want to lean more towards China, because they are growing to become stronger global power than the United States, and that one sees an impending shift.
Røseth continues:
– Having nuclear capacity will also be considered attractive after this war. It can be used more actively to pressure the United States and the West, as Russia has now done with partial success. Several states will thus seek to have this capacity.
sea view
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– The scrap heap of history
The reaction to China’s support for Russia has already come.
– China claims to be neutral, but the behavior makes it clear that they are still investing in close ties with Russia, says a spokesman for the US State Department.
“Countries that side with Vladimir Putin will inevitably end up on the scrap heap of history,” the unnamed spokesman said further, according to NTB.
The person emphasizes that the United States is closely following China, including how China “continues to reproduce Russian propaganda and suggests that the atrocities in Ukraine have been staged”.
FRIENDS: A partnership has been built between the two states for over 30 years now, and Putin and Xi Jinping have developed a close personal friendship, according to Tom Røseth. Stock Photo: Sputnik / Evgeniy Paulin / Kremlin / Reuters / NTB
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The worries
Røseth thinks China’s assurance to Russia is perceived as disappointing for NATO.
– It shows that a distinction is emerging between authoritarian countries and democracies, and that there are clear conflicts of interest between the two countries and NATO. For NATO, China will be formally higher on the agenda as a potential threat, he says.
– Does this give cause for concern?
– The concern is that we get a greater cooperation between China and Russia, and in the long run a separation between these countries and the West. China in particular is getting stronger, he answers, and adds that this will apply to both economics and security policy.
“Putin’s nightmare”: – Increased sharply
China’s desire
For Russia, it is of great importance that such a powerful partner as China supports the country politically and in the war, according to Røseth.
“Beijing claims to be neutral in the war, but the rhetoric and how they interact with the parties is clearly in Russia’s favor,” he said.
He believes that China’s wish is for Russia to dictate both the outcome of the war and a peace agreement, without external interference.
– China believes that the West should not support Ukraine with weapons, and that Russia should be able to demand security from NATO, he says.
EXPERT: Associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– Limit US power
That China itself will contribute to the war itself, however, he thinks is unlikely.
– I do not think they dare to do that unless they can hide it well with indirect means. They are afraid of Western sanctions and know that the Americans are following this closely now.
– I doubt that they dare to contribute physically or with forces, but diplomatically, politically and perhaps economically they will be a supporter of Russia, he adds.
– What significance will the cooperation with Russia mean for China?
– They get a partner in Russia who helps to limit US power. They have common interests in much of international politics, and they can exchange legitimacy for non-democratic regimes, Røseth answers.
He also believes that Beijing needs Moscow to challenge the United States and to gain support in the Security Council.
– China makes Russia dare more towards the West, and with the prospect of increased trade when the fear of sanctions is lowered in Beijing, China will be able to partly ease Russia’s economic worries in the long run. This is how they help to give Russia both self-confidence and weight for what they are doing now, he adds.
Speaks: – Russia is not perfect
«Best friend»
That China chooses to give Russia its support is not really a big surprise, Røseth believes.
A partnership has been built between the two states for over 30 years now, and Putin and Xi Jinping have developed a close personal friendship, according to him.
– They have met very frequently since 2013, and Jinping has stated that Putin is his best friend. They usually meet when they have a birthday and celebrate it, says Røseth.
