“The victories recently confirmed by Russian troops at Ugledar and Velika Novoselka show that the war in Ukraine is not very difficult. year,” the report said.
According to the ISW, the advance of Russian troops in Southeast Ukraine is largely due to the identification and tactical use of vulnerabilities on the Ukrainian front line.
Since the autumn, Russian troops have been making gradual tactical progress in the south-east of Ukraine. Russian forces have not been able to recapture the operational momentum seen in the early months of the war, and Russia’s current tactical progress, while faster than the months of trench warfare that marked much of 2023 and early 2024, still significantly slower than -slow. from the pace of progress in March 2022.
Russian forces were able to take advantage of the capture of Ugledar for further offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, despite ISW’s erroneous projection to the contrary.
The Russian advance towards Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, Ugledar and Velika Novoselka gives the Russian military command several options that it can try to implement in the coming weeks and months.
ISW presents the following options for developing battles on the battlefield in no particular order, as each of them is not exclusive from the others.
Option 1: Russian forces advance south-west, east and north-east of Velikaya Novoselka to encircle the populated area from the flanks, bypassing the area immediately south of Velikaya Novoselka.
Option 2: Russian troops advance to Andreevka (along the H15 route and west of Kurakhovo) from the south in support of efforts to close Ukrainian “pockets” near Kurakhovo and stretch the front line.
Option 3: Russian forces advance west and south-west from Selidovo along the Pustinka-Sonstsovka line towards Andreevka to close the Ukrainian “pocket” north of Kurakhovo and threaten routes withdraw from Ukraine.
“It is still not clear which targets the Russian command will pursue, and whether it will pursue them at all,” the analysts explain.
Experts note that the priority task of the Russian command in the Donetsk region until the end of 2024 is the capture of Pokrovsk – a goal that the Russian command temporarily abandoned after the strong Ukrainian resistance near the city.
It is not clear to what extent the Russian command is prepared to take advantage of the opportunities in this sector of the front, and what resistance the Ukrainian troops will bring to Moscow’s forces.
Details: The report suggests that Russian military commanders are likely planning an advance into the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region to support Russia’s long-term goal of capture the entire Donetsk region.
The Kremlin’s stated goal of capturing all of Donetsk is likely to include ground operations in southern and eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to disrupt Ukrainian land lines of communication supporting Kiev’s military positions in and around Donetsk Oblast.
“Russia’s possible efforts aimed at achieving the Kremlin’s goal of capturing the entire Donetsk Oblast by taking over at least part of the Dnipropetrovsk region are in line with Moscow’s desire for the complete surrender of Ukraine and the destruction of its independence and territorial sovereignty.
“Russian military commanders appear to be planning more complex operations, but Russian forces have not yet been able to restore operational maneuvers on the battlefield and instead remain dependent to their ability to identify vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defense line and exploit them for incremental tactical advances.” , summary from ISW.
2024-11-25 05:47:00
#war #Ukraine #dead #options #development #Russian #attack
**How does the article highlight the potential for a “shifting tide” in the Eastern Ukraine conflict, and what evidence does it provide to support this claim?** (This question encourages analysis of the central argument and supporting points.)
## World Today News Exclusive Interview: The Shifting Tide in Eastern Ukraine
**Welcome to World Today News. Today we’re joined by two leading experts on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to discuss a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which highlights a notable shift in the battlefield dynamics in the Donetsk region.**
**Our guests today are:**
* **Dr. Alina Petrov:** Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies, specializing in Russian military strategy.
* **Mr. Yuriy Kovalenko:** Former Ukrainian military officer and commentator on Ukrainian defense strategies.
**Section 1: The Russian Revival**
**Interviewer:**
Dr. Petrov, the ISW report suggests that Russian forces have made more tangible progress in recent months, especially around Ugledar and Velika Novoselka. What are the key factors contributing to this renewed momentum?
**Dr. Petrov:**
**[Dr. Petrov provides her analysis on the possible reasons for the Russian advance, touching on potential improvements in Russian tactics, logistics, or exploitation of Ukrainian weaknesses.]**
**Interviewer:**
Mr. Kovalenko, how do you respond to this assessment? Do you see this as a significant development, or merely a tactical adjustment by the Russian forces?
**Mr. Kovalenko:**
**[Mr. Kovalenko offers his perspective, potentially highlighting the nuances of the situation, perhaps pointing out Ukrainian defensive strategies and countermeasures.]**
**Section 2: The Battleground Ahead:**
**Interviewer:**
The report outlines several potential Russian operational objectives, including encircling Velika Novoselka and advancing towards Pokrovsk. What are the strategic implications of these potential moves?
**Mr. Kovalenko:**
**[Mr. Kovalenko explains the significance of these locations, outlining potential Ukrainian vulnerabilities and the defensive challenges they might pose.]**
**Interviewer:**
Dr. Petrov, from the Russian perspective, how do you see them prioritizing these objectives? What are the risks and benefits associated with each possible avenue of attack?
**Dr. Petrov:**
**[Dr. Petrov analyzes the situation from the Russian perspective, considering their strategic goals, resource constraints, and potential risks involved in each scenario.]**
**Section 3: The Long Game:**
**Interviewer:**
The ISW report points to the possibility of further Russian offensives potentially extending into the Dnipropetrovsk region. Dr. Petrov, what are the broader strategic implications of this potential expansion? What might Russia be hoping to achieve?
**Dr. Petrov:**
**[Dr. Petrov discusses the broader geopolitical significance of a potential push into Dnipropetrovsk, possibly analyzing these moves within the context of Russia’s long-term objectives.]**
**Interviewer:**
Mr. Kovalenko, how prepared is Ukraine to face such a scenario? What defensive strategies and international support might be crucial in deterring or countering such an offensive?
**Mr. Kovalenko:**
**[MrKovalenkoassessesUkrainianpreparednesshighlightingtheirstrengthsandweaknessesandemphasizingthe[MrKovalenkoassessesUkrainianpreparednesshighlightingtheirstrengthsandweaknessesandemphasizingthe[MrKovalenkoassessesUkrainianpreparednesshighlightingtheirstrengthsandweaknessesandemphasizingthe[MrKovalenkoassessesUkrainianpreparednesshighlightingtheirstrengthsandweaknessesandemphasizingthe
importance of continued international support.]**
**Section 4: The Future of the Conflict:**
**Interviewer:**
Looking ahead, what are your predictions for the immediate future of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine? What key factors will determine its trajectory in the coming months?
**[Bothguestsoffertheirconcludingthoughtsontheconflict’slikelydevelopmentemphasizingkeyfactorssuchas[Bothguestsoffertheirconcludingthoughtsontheconflict’slikelydevelopmentemphasizingkeyfactorssuchas[Bothguestsoffertheirconcludingthoughtsontheconflict’slikelydevelopmentemphasizingkeyfactorssuchas[Bothguestsoffertheirconcludingthoughtsontheconflict’slikelydevelopmentemphasizingkeyfactorssuchas
international support, Ukrainian resilience, and Russia’s strategic objectives.]**
**Interviewer:**
Thank you both for your insightful analysis. We appreciate your valuable contributions to our understanding of this complex and evolving situation.
**[Outro[Outro[Outro[Outro
Notice: This is a template and should be adapted and expanded based on the actual insights and opinions provided by the experts.
