When NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, on April 10 announced plans for the deployment of a permanent full-scale force in the eastDirector Iver Neumann at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute stated that the most important place NATO must equip now is the so-called The Suwalki gap.
This border area, which is a 65-kilometer narrow corridor between Lithuania in the north and Poland in the south, separates the Baltic NATO countries in the north from the other NATO countries in the south, via Belarus in the east and the heavily Russian military exclave. Kaliningrad i vest.
Tom Røseth, head of intelligence at the Armed Forces Staff College, also believes that it is important for NATO to take action to secure the states in this area.
– This is especially true in the Suwalki area, as the Russians here have their own strategic interests, and because this is one of the few places where they can imagine challenging NATO, Røseth tells Dagbladet.
– How vulnerable is this area per noh?
– It is vulnerable as a flat and open terrain, which has no significant physical obstacles, Røseth answers.
– What makes it less vulnerable is that NATO has recently moved soldiers to Poland and the Baltics, he adds.
– Now comes the reaction from NATO
– Can get control
According to him, the fear is that NATO will enter the area too late, if Russia occupies it, and thus blocks the possibilities of supplying the Baltics with troops over land.
– Then Russia will be able to quickly control this area, Røseth believes.
– But this has been a concern for NATO for some time now, and is also the reason why they have increased their presence in the Baltics and Poland, ie to raise the threshold for Russian control and for deterrence, he elaborates.
The Suwalki corridor itself, which is mainly just a flat plain, there is no point in deploying large forces in the current situation, says researcher Røseth.
– It is more important to place the forces in the countries so that they will be a strategic factor for Russia in their assessment there, so that in a triggered show the Russians will be aware that it will lead to serious consequences, he says.
sea view
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Medium-range missiles
To the west, the Suwalki Corridor borders Kaliningrad – a Russian-occupied territory, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned he will consider equipping militarily to strengthen the country’s security if Finland or Sweden join NATO.
– There, the Russians have stationed, among other things, medium-range missiles, which can carry nuclear warheads – and which can reach the whole of Europe, Røseth says.
– What do you think will happen if Sweden and / or Finland become members of NATO?
Kaliningrad has been passed in the Baltic Sea and part of the Baltic Sea balance. If these two neutral countries become part of NATO, Russia will probably step up its presence and permanently locate its nuclear arsenal there and along the border with Finland.
Such a response has already been signaled from Moscow, but these are actions Russia has occasionally taken in the past, Røseth answers.
THE SUWALKI CORRIDOR: A 70-kilometer-narrow corridor makes the Baltics extra vulnerable to a Russian attack.
sea view
– Two new opponents
Last week, Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev stated that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia will have two new opponents, and armaments will be necessary, according to NTB.
– There can no longer be talk of nuclear-weapon-free status for the Baltic Sea region. Until now, Russia has not taken any action in this regard and had no plans to do so. But if we are forced, remember that we were not the ones proposing this, he said according to the British The Independent.
In the coming weeks, both Sweden and Finland will decide whether to apply for NATO membership. If it happens quickly, they can be included in the alliance already at the summit in Madrid at the end of June.
