Latvian Television’s program “De facto” reports that Latvia’s armament consists mostly of military goods purchased from allies in the European Union or NATO. However
a contract was also concluded for the supply of small arms ammunition worth several million euros, manufactured in Brazil. This country has announced that it will not allow ammunition produced in this country to be delivered to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Europe’s military capacity is unable to produce as much ammunition as the Ukrainian forces currently need.
News from Brazil in late January said that the Brazilian president had rejected a German request to supply tank ammunition, which would then be handed over to Ukraine.
“I didn’t want to send, because if I send ammunition, I will get involved in the war,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in an interview with CNN on February 10.
Even before that, he said that “Brazil does not want to get involved in any way, even indirectly. Because I think that at this moment it is necessary to look for who can help find peace between Russia and Ukraine (..) Brazil made a decision not to supply ammunition because we do not want this ammunition to be used in the war against Russia”.
Although not among the largest, according to data at the beginning of the war in Ukraine (SIPRI, March, 2022), Brazil was the 21st of the 25 largest arms exporting countries in the world. At that time, France was the most important recipient of it.
In the speeches of the Brazilian president, messages often used in Russia’s information war can be heard, the aim of which is not to provide, reduce or stop aid to Ukraine. However, in this war, it is important to maintain aid to Ukraine in the long term.
“Since the information campaigns against us will continue, the long-term focus needs to be made and it will be difficult to sustain it in the long-term. (..) And here, of course, we enter the area of speculation as to how long it will be possible to hold it. Because Russia has entered this all-out war – the side that will run out of resources or the will to fight first will win. And of course, Ukraine is not alone against Russia, the entire Western democratic world, including Latvia, is with Ukraine, there are much more resources there, politically, diplomatically, militarily, as well as humanitarian aid,” he says to the LTV program “De facto” Head of the Strategic Communication Coordination Department of the State Chancellery, Rihards Bambals.
Also, the Latvian army, in accordance with the procurement procedure, has signed a contract for the supply of rifle ammunition manufactured in Brazil, meeting NATO standards, worth several million euros. Although Ukraine has not requested this type of ammunition at the moment, if it were necessary, Latvia would most likely not be able to send it to Ukraine due to Brazil’s attitude.
Until now, Latvia has not received a refusal to send weapons to Ukraine from any country, as the possible risks have been weighed before that.
“Before sending, we have thought whether there could potentially be any political reasons why one or the other government might not issue this approval. Because it is usually stipulated in contracts, also internationally – in fact, at the moment when we buy a product from any country, we certify with our signature that we will not transfer this equipment to any third country without the approval of this country,” says Jānis Garisons, State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense .
At the very beginning of the war, there were concerns about whether, for example, neutral Scandinavia would allow military goods produced there to be transferred to Ukraine, but they were unfounded. Weapons supplies to Ukraine have been refused Austria and Hungary.
Switzerland, which has always positioned itself as a neutral country, has not allowed Spain to send anti-aircraft guns and Denmark – armored vehicles to Ukraine. It has refrained from supplying weapons to Ukraine Israel, which is the world’s tenth largest arms exporter. Latvia has bought anti-tank weapons from Israel.
Currently, by far the majority of weapons and equipment used in Latvia come from NATO and European Union countries, and Latvia’s largest partners in military supplies are the USA, Great Britain, Sweden, Finland and Germany.
“In further purchases, I think it is necessary to understand very clearly the risks that can arise from the purchase of armaments from such countries, which can potentially further refuse our oversupply potential during the war (..) If now a country refuses to supply weapons to Ukraine, I assume that those circumstances will be very similar in our case as well,” admits Garrison.
He points out that this is very important in such procurements, where it is a question of more complex systems, where it is not possible to buy them at the same time, for example, all the necessary amount of missiles.
Since the beginning of the war, Latvia has already sent military aid worth 370 million euros to Ukraine.
Latvia, like many other Western countries, has sent to Ukraine the military goods that were in warehouses, including what is produced in Latvia. But allied warehouses are emptying much faster than the military industry can fill them.
“There have been significant shortages in Europe. If we talk about numbers, for example, France has now supplied, according to official data, 18 howitzers to Ukraine, which is 20% of its arsenal, the Czech Republic has supplied 45% of its modern missiles. Then Norway 40% of their howitzers. We see that those numbers already illustrate the fact that it is a large part of the resources that are currently in Europe, and the military industry, in turn, is unable to supply it,” says Mārtiņš Vargulis, deputy director of the Latvian Institute of Foreign Policy, to the program.
In Ukraine, more ammunition is used in one day than, for example, in Afghanistan in a month or two.
“The war in Ukraine requires an unusual amount of ammunition and it is emptying the alliance’s warehouses. Currently, the amount of ammunition consumed in Ukraine is many times greater than what we are able to produce. This puts pressure on the military industry,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in his speech this week.
In Europe, for example, there is a lack of a powder production plant, and one of the planned development directions is this.
Military production should be increased both to restore own stocks and to help Ukraine. However, the war has also shown, for example, how much Europe is militarily dependent on the United States, which is the world’s largest arms exporter.
“Especially in the European Union, there is a lot of talk about the so-called strategic autonomy. (..) However, looking at the broadest context, I don’t think it would be good to maximally close our market to, for example, NATO countries. Such as the USA, Canada, Great Britain, which is currently outside the European Union, and Turkey, and others,” Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs (Jaunā Vienotība) told the program.
The contribution of European Union countries to military aid to Ukraine is estimated at around 12 billion euros.
