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The war in Ukraine: – Has come on abruptly

Recently, Ukraine’s General Staff claimed that the Russian government is preparing its people for a long war for the first time and that they are introducing draconian mobilization measures, the think tank writes Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in one of his daily reports on the war in Ukraine.

The General Staff claims that one of the measures is that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Russia has initiated preparations to deploy 17- and 18-year-old members of a military organization for young people, Yunarmiya. The information has not been confirmed.

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In addition, Russian authorities will work diligently to deploy Syrian, Libyan and Belarusian forces in Ukraine. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian General Staff has repeatedly stated that Russia is putting pressure on Belarus to get Belarusian forces to take part in the war, but that they have met opposition from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

– Suddenly

Research leader and lieutenant colonel Tormod Heier at the Staff College at the Norwegian Defense College assesses that the need for mobilization has come suddenly to Russia.

– The Russians had not imagined having to mobilize in this way. This is because they envisioned reaching their military and political goals within a few days at the end of February, Heier tells Dagbladet and continues:

– Thus, this is something that has come suddenly, which Russia had not planned for or prepared for. It puts pressure on the entire Russian political and military system.

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Defensive grep

Initially, Russia and Vladimir Putin tried to replace the government in Ukraine quickly with relatively few resources. This caused the Ukrainian forces to fail. As a result, the Russians have begun to systematically isolate and destroy large Ukrainian cities in order to take control of them.

Heier considers that Ukraine has turned the war into a track that favors them.

– The Russians take defensive action: they dig trenches and establish minefields. This indicates that they do not have ambitions to carry out offensive attacks with soldiers, but rather consolidate the grip around the cities and use aircraft, missiles and artillery, says Heier and continues:

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– To maintain pressure around the cities, the Russians must provide more personnel, ammunition, fuel and spare parts. If they do not, the Ukrainians will be able to get on the offensive. Then they will be able to isolate and gradually defeat the Russian forces, for example by destroying the supply lines back to Russia.

Going forward, it is expected that Russia will take Mariupol and intensify the bombing of major Ukrainian cities.

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