Las economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have been worldwide. The cause of this armed conflict, Russia, had until now contained the effects. However, it seems that the situation has changed. This week it became known that the Russian currency, the ruble, it has fallen to its lowest since April 2022.
Before the war, the value was around 70 rubles to the dollar. Since then, it has only changed. In March 2022 it reached its lowest peak: 143 rubles per dollar. A month later it was at 83 rubles per dollar and in March 2023 slightly exceeded 80 rubles per dollarits lowest level since the spring of a year ago.
What have been the causes? First, there is the factor of Shell oil speculation, which could make $1 billion in ruble proceeds from the sale of a project in the Far East. A movement that has not yet been confirmed, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin would have approved, according to the Kommersant.
The Kremlin has created a special commission to approve the sale of assets by foreign companies. Despite this, the country has lost between 15,000 and 20,000 million dollars, according to Bloomberg estimates.
On the other hand, Putin admitted last week the negative consequences of Western sanctions. “Illegitimate restrictions imposed on the Russian economy may have a negative impact in the medium term,” he said. Later, he stressed that despite this the country market remained resilientbeing them the most affected by the rise in the price of energy.
He also noted that Russia was growing thanks, in part, to the collaboration of China and some African countries. In fact, preliminary estimates from the Russian government show that economic output contracted by 2.1% last year, more limited data than many economists initially forecast.
As indicated by the CNNalthough China has thrown the Kremlin “an economic lifeline” by buying Russian energy and providing an alternative to the US dollar, they are beginning to register the effects of the conflict with a drop in government revenue of 35% in January compared to the previous year. While, expenses skyrocketed 59%, giving rise to a budget deficit of about 1,761,000 million rubles (23,300 million dollars).
