The War in Ukraine – Experts:

In recent months, Ukraine has regained control of a number of Russian-occupied areas in the country. In September, Ukraine launched a lightning offensive in the Kharkiv area, recapturing several territories.

Recently, the Ukrainians have especially focused on Kherson county and last week they retook the city of Kherson. It was seen as a major victory for the Ukrainians, as Kherson was the only provincial capital the Russians managed to take control of after their 24 February invasion.

– He can take back Crimea

With the recapture of Kherson, the possibility may also arise that Ukraine will finally be able to recapture the Crimea peninsula, which Russia occupied and annexed in 2014. This is the opinion of several military experts.

– That Ukraine will take back Crimea is now a real possibility, and can no longer be ruled out, adds a US official The Telegraph.

Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug also shares this view. He believes Ukraine might be able to take back Crimea sometime.

– This is a realistic scenario. If Russia offers military resistance, it could take a few months, but if it doesn’t offer military resistance as expected, it could go even faster. We have already seen how they have withdrawn from Kharkiv, Donbass and now most recently Kherson, Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.

The Russian reserve forces that have been deployed are poorly trained and cannot be used as a strike force, the lieutenant general believes.

– It will take many months to assemble new military departments, and it is not certain that they have the necessary weapons and equipment to support these departments.

One scenario Dalhaug says could allow Ukraine to retake Crimea is if Ukrainian forces cross the river at the city of Dnipro and try to retake land extending to the Sea of ​​Azov.

– Then they will cut supply lines to Crimea and be able to attack from the ground. If they can do that, they have an opportunity to take back Crimea, Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.

– Fully possible

Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø, who heads the land forces section at the Staff School, believes Ukraine may be able to reach Crimea or recapture large swathes of Donbas this winter.

– It is entirely possible if the conditions are favorable. Initially it will depend on the strength conditions. Ukraine must have a combination of local superiority in both quality and quantity both to be able to break through to the Russian front and to penetrate Russian supply lines, especially the railways, Ydstebø told NTB.

– They must also be strong enough to counter any Russian counterattacks and counterattacks. Such offensives require large amounts of artillery, which needs a lot of ammunition, says Ydstebø.

On Tuesday, SVT writes that satellite images show that Russian forces are digging trenches on the border between Kherson and Crimea. According to Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi, this is a sign that Russian forces are preparing for a Ukrainian offensive against Crimea.

– You are worried about a Ukrainian offensive up to the Crimea, and then you make preparations in the places on the ground where you predict the Ukrainians will advance, Paasikivi tells SVT extension.

– Maybe next year

Now that Kherson has returned to Ukrainian hands, the road to Crimea has also shortened for the Ukrainians. Ukraine’s offensive is moving towards Crimea, but there is still a long way to go towards the occupied peninsula. From the city of Kherson to the Crimea, the road is more than 330 kilometers.

– They have prepared the ground so that they can regain full sovereignty, including over Crimea, within the next year, I thinksaid retired General Ben Hodges Newsweek i september.

Tom Røseth, associate professor and principal intelligence lecturer at the Norwegian Defense College (FHS), tells Dagbladet that the recapture of Kherson gives the Ukrainians the opportunity to advance. However, he believes it could be very difficult to take Crimea back.

– There is still a long way to go before Ukraine can recapture Sevastopol in Crimea, and militarily speaking it will be very challenging. But I think we will see further Ukrainian victories and they will pick up ground this winter. Røseth says to Dagbladet.

– In a special location

A year ago, it was considered unthinkable that Ukraine could regain the peninsula. The Guardian he writes that no serious military analyst believes that Ukraine is close to being able to regain control of Crimea, but that the idea is perceived as less fanciful than it was a year ago.

While Russia is struggling on multiple fronts in Ukraine, the newspaper writes that many people believe there is now more hope than before.

Retired Australian General Mike Ryan does not believe Ukraine can take back Crimea anytime soon. The fact that Ukraine has now recovered Kherson is, however, a step in the right direction, we must believe the general.

Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet in early November that Crimea is in a special position.

– Russia is much more interested in Crimea than in much else. What Russia had in the Donbass they were willing to negotiate, but Crimea will never be a bargaining chip. I can hardly imagine a Russian president wanting to give Crimea away.

Big consequences

If Crimea were to fall back into the hands of Ukraine, it would be very decisive, according to several experts.

The liberation of Crimea would be the biggest victory in the war for Ukraine, an indescribable defeat for Russia, and even Putin’s seizure of power could therefore hang in the balance, writes AP foreign affairs expert Tamar Fakhany.

Research leader Gudrun Persson of the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI) in Sweden believes a loss of Crimea will have major political consequences for Putin.

Speculations about the death of the Kherson leader

– The annexation of Crimea was very popular in Russia, even in circles critical of Putin. It was accepted in Russian society, but also in the West. Putin got away with it. That he would have survived the loss of Crimea politically is very hard for me to see, adds Persson Today’s news.

When asked whether Putin will survive politically if Crimea falls back into Ukrainian hands, Dalhaug replies:

– It’s hard to know what’s going on in the Kremlin, but if the war turns out even worse than now, I think Putin would be on the loose. He suffered major and painful defeats early in the war and the loss of Crimea could lead to regime change. They’ve experienced this before, first in 1917 and then in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, Dalhaug says.